Jyotika's Tropical Storms Blog

November 30: Final Day of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

2011-11-30T23:59:00.004-05:00

Welcome to the final entry of my award-breaking blog for this year!! J I might be leaping to conclusion, but as I sit here in subtropical Florida in my sweater, with the fire blazing merrily away, I’m inclined to think that the season is pretty much over. Yes my friends, it is that time of year when you can breathe a sigh of relief and thank your lucky stars (and have a glass or two of wine) that this is the last Hurricane Season message from me until next year. Probably.

(Unless, of course, that blobette with a 20% chance of development that the NHC are watching today does something silly. It has some circulation (but more like a front than a storm), not much convection, and very little conviction. It’s just Mother Nature’s wonderfully capricious sense of humour to have a blobette today, that’s all. ;-))

This year was actually a quieter season compared to last year and, contrary to some reports, I think it was generally an average year. Officially we had 19 tropical named storms, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 were major hurricanes. As usual, you may have noticed that I didn’t always agree with the NHC (I was trying to be subtle, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it escaped your attention ;-)). According to the blurb: “This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.” Hmm. Really? Let’s dissect this (because I’m a scientist and that’s what we all do in the movies).

The average season now has around 12-13 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. So we had an average number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. That leaves the number of named storms. We know there were some Micky Mouse storms (hey, I live in Florida, I have been indoctrinated ;-)) – those that would have been cartoon characters if they had a chance. They wouldn’t have been named in ye olde goldene dayse because our satellite data interpretation wasn’t as good. Definitely Tropical Storms Cindy, Franklin and Jose. TS Lee and TS Harvey were also rather questionable and rather short. So that leaves us with 14 storms (including subtropical Storms) that would really be eligible to attend the Queen’s Garden Party (provided they had the right hats). So I’ll go against the grain and say that really, in the grand scheme of things, this wasn’t greatly above average as seasons go. Ho hum.

And that, I think, will be my last scientific commentary for this season. Hurray! J Now it’s fun-time. First, some exciting statistics for this blog (well, it’s exciting to me J). This is my 100^th entry for this season. This is also the conclusion of 5 years of having a proper website blog (which looks very blog-like with all the photos and whatnots), and 6 years of a listserve. During that time, the website has had around 21, 200 hits! That is amazing for something that has, generally, been spread by word-of-mouth. If I include the listserve since the beginning (c. 2005), you, your family, your friends, your friend’s friends, your families friends, your friends families, your family’s family, your cats, dogs, goldfish, ponies and sheep, and all their friends and families have, collectively, read my ramblings over 500,000 times!!! Gulp.

THANK YOU for continuing to read, for telling people, and for entertaining me throughout the season with jokes, comments, and fabulous questions. Also, a BIG Thank You to those of you who were in the paths of assorted storms who sent me your thoughts, comments, photos etc. That really livened up what would otherwise have been a very dull read. Thanks to the NHC for doing a pretty tricky job really, and for being Moriarty to my Sherlock (or possibly vice versa?)...give me a call if you need a hand. ;-) I also need to thank my fantastic technical support team: Doug M. at the CMS/USF (http://www.marine.usf.edu/) in Florida for helping me maintain the listserve, and Chris H. in Texas and Ben A. in California for helping me maintain and upgrade my website blog. By the way, if you want to take a dip in geek-nirvana and are interested in B-movies and other such things, Chris and another friend, Scott, have just re-booted their classic podcasts at http://stomptokyo.tumblr.com/. I also want to thank Andrew T. in North Carolina who contacted me via twitter to invite me to write my first guest blog entry this year for Southern Fried Science (http://www.southernfriedscience.com/). This is a groovy blog by marine science students in North Carolina. Unfortunately I completely goofed on this (sorry sorry!) because it was right around the time of Hurricane Irene and in the midst of an unusually mad travel/work schedule for me (my real job strikes again ;-)). Hopefully, next year? Finally, last but not least, I have to thank those who are in the thick of things – those who are near and dear to me. Thanks for your continued attempts to make me sane... you have a life-long project. Good luck with that. ;-)

Although I usually hibernate from now until June, I do have a couple of marshmallows on the fire… as you know, I’m a twit (JyovianStorm), and will continue to tweet about storms in other basins as well as other things that I find interesting (science, science fiction, literature, and things). AND now for something completely different (Monty Python)… I have a NEW blog! it’s a photo-blog called ‘Just around the next corner’ and can be found at http://jyovianstorm.tumblr.com/. I started this a couple of weeks ago (so I’m still a bit wonky on it) and am currently posting photos of the South West Coast Path walks in Devon, UK. Two new photos appear every day, and there are multiple pages now. Here is one sample:

“One of those rare cloudy days in the UK, just after the UFO took off…”.

Click on them to see them in high-res. I’ll be posting other photos once I run out of these.

Well I think that’s it from me for 2011!! So… here’s a big slurpy (and slurry) toast to the end of the Hurricane Season. I wish you all a very happy and safe holiday season, Happy New Year and all that jazz, and I’ll be back for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Cheers & TOODLE PIP!
J. J

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Sean: 11/11/11 Update A

2011-11-11T21:55:00.002-05:00

Happy Elevenses Day (11/11/11), Veterans Day (US) and Remembrance Day (Commonwealth Countries)! Hands up if you did something to mark the 11/11/11 11:11:11 second? (Me too ;-))

This will be my apopemptic entry on Sean (oooh aaah… big word alert – I learned it today so I had to share J). He is officially at 36.7N, 57.7W, heading ENE at a whopping 35mph. This fast forward speed is because he is now fully part of that low pressure front I mentioned yesterday and doesn’t have the circulation of a tropical storm; the vorticity (circulation) is no longer confined to a nice circular area in the lower troposphere. Winds are 40mph (so officially barely Tropical Storm level) and central pressure is estimated to be 1000mb. Not much more to say really.

For those of you taking advantage of a three day weekend to fix things around the house, here's something that I hope will help:

Enjoy! ;-)

Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Sean: November 10, Update A

2011-11-10T23:59:00.000-05:00

I found two things of note today. First, I found a sharp metal shaving in a restaurant. I was there for lunch and it caught my attention after I realized it didn’t have quite the same consistency as the cooked pasta I was chewing. Oops. And second, I found that the NHC and I are in better agreement. Not oops. J

Tropical Storm Sean is currently at 31.5N, 68.2W moving ENE at a nice 13mph. He has remained a mid-to-high Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph and central pressure of 983mb. His convection has improved a bit, but the dry air is still a factor and the wind shear is pretty strong for him so the convection is all to the northeast (satellite IR image):

I think the NHC have dropped the idea of Hurricane Sean for this year – their forecast now keeps him as a Tropical Storm until tomorrow, when he merges with a low pressure front that’s moving eastward off the US (as you can probably tell if you live along the eastern US – it is certainly breezy and cooler in Florida this evening). I’ve heard people say that the windy weather in Florida and the choppy waters are because of the tropical storm… nope…. they are because of this front. You can see this front in the water vapor satellite image as the band of clouds that stretches from the northeast to the southwest and covers Florida:

It is a little tricky for me to see the center of circulation because he is not very well organized and it’s night now, but it looks like it might be slightly to the right of the forecast track, so it might pass a bit closer to Bermuda. It still looks like it’ll be more windy than thunderstorms over the island because the bulk of the heaviest convection is already almost due west of Bermuda.

I’ll be back tomorrow… assuming I didn’t actually swallow any metal - a bit of extra aluminium (note: correct UK spelling ;-)) or whatever it was is probably good for me anyway, right? And alcohol can be used to clean cuts can’t it? Hmm… ;-)

Adieu for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Sean: November 9, Update A

2011-11-10T01:18:00.002-05:00

Happy Carl Sagan Day! Ok, so by the time I finish this I know the day will be over and many of you won’t read this until tomorrow, but I was too busy celebrating by watching the last couple of episodes of the excellent series ‘Cosmos’ with some like-minded geeks. Yes, of course there was wine. ;-)

In keeping with the spirit of Dr. Sagan I should warn you that I may, perhaps, exhibit some very subtle signs of science and healthy skepticism in the next few minutes…

Tropical Storm Sean’s vital statistics currently show that he’s at 29.7N, 70.9W moving N at 8mph. The estimated central pressure is 991mb and winds are 65mph, making him a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).

I can’t believe the NHC think Sean may be a hurricane tomorrow! (did you notice my very subtle skepticism?). Didn’t we already cover this earlier in the season? I would not classify a storm as a hurricane if the upper tropospheric vorticity is actually a low pressure front! The structure is not the same as a tropical storm at all. Goodness me. Here are some reasons why he’s nowhere near being a hurricane:

1. The vorticity (circulation) is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere so it certainly looks like a nice Tropical Storm. However, the vorticity (circulation) from the mid-to-upper troposphere looks more like a low pressure front than a tropical storm… it is spread out over a large area, from the northern Caribbean to Georgia. A tropical storm would have a confined area of vorticity.

2. The convection continues to remain weak. Given that the blue areas are clouds with no rain, the light yellow is a light drizzle, and the orange areas are heavy rain with some thunder, does this IR satellite image look like it’s strong enough to be approaching hurricane strength?

He looks remarkably similar to yesterday’s image (which was similar to the day before). At the most, I would continue to place him as a mid-sized Tropical Storm.

3. If we look at the lower level convergence and upper level divergence (remember those from earlier in the season? – if not, send me a note and I’ll find my ‘should-be-award-winning-if-there-was-one-for-this’ fabulous explanation for you ;-)), we see that the lower level convergence is strong enough for a tropical storm, but the upper level divergence is really wishy-washy.

The biggest inhibitor continues to be the dry air. Wind shear dropped a little since yesterday, but it’s still enough so wind shear continues to have a bit of an effect on this storm.

Although I’m not buying the intensity thing, I think the track is generally good. He will pass to the west of Bermuda and shouldn’t really affect any land too much. At the rate he is going, he’ll be passing Bermuda during the day tomorrow instead of overnight.

Before I go, I thought I’d mention that there was a big non-tropical storm in Alaska today. Chris in Washington DC thought I would be interested in knowing such a thing was happening (yes indeed! Thanks!). This is not a tropical storm of course, but it was big enough to evacuate people and create some NOAA storm quick-look pages, which are normally used during a tropical storm. The reason for the evacuations and the storm pages is because there is some rather large storm surge. Here are the National Ocean Service observations of this from the coastal water level instrument in Nome, Alaska (provided via tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov):

The top plot shows the water level. The blue line in the top figure is the usual predicted water level along the coast, the red line is the observed water level along the coast, and the green line is the difference between the two… i.e. the storm surge. You can see that the water levels along the coast at Nome were 10ft above normal, and the surge was 9ft!! That is HUGE. And that’s just from a ‘normal’ winter storm I think. The second plot shows the winds, which went up to about 42 knots. The third plot shows the drop in pressure as the storm passed by… down to 970mb! That’s less than some tropical storms! The last figure shows the air and water temperatures, in deg F… hmm, I see temperatures of 17 deg F, How toasty is that? Practially bikini-wearing weather, right? Ha. So not only was the storm surge high, but the water was cold (just over 32 deg F when the surge was the highest).

That’s it for today. Time for a lovely nap now. More tomorrow though!

Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Sean: November 8, Update A

2011-11-08T23:52:00.003-05:00

How does the time go by so quickly, huh? Anyway, very little of it is left today for me to write this so it’ll be quick and very practical and not very funny at all.

The NHC changed Sean to a Subtropical Storm in the early hours of this morning. That would be in keeping with the vorticity (circulation) signals I was seeing, where he looked like a Tropical Storm in the lower half of the troposphere, but had a low pressure front signal in the upper troposphere. I think they should have left him as a Subtropical Storm because he really only looks like a Tropical Storm in the lowest levels of the troposphere - the vorticity is looking more like a low pressure front now in the middle levels of the troposphere as well as the upper levels.

He is currently at around 27.5N, 70.5W. This is a bit south and west of the official location of 27.9N, 70.1W. He appears to be heading westwardish, officially at 3mph. Winds are 50mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 999mb, making him a low-to-mid level storm (TS range: 39-73mph).

As I expected, convection really has not picked up – the IR satellite image from this evening is here:

Can you spot the difference from yesterday’s IR image? Oh yes, there’s that one small cloud… ;-) There is just too much dry air around him for the convection to pick up and I still don’t see this changing any time soon.

There are storm warnings for Bermuda. It should be a lovely breezy night on Thursday. I’m not sure you should even bother dusting off the umbrellas.

I had all these grand plans to write about people I know called Sean, asteroids, high storm surge where the water temps are 1 deg C (brrr), and other relevant stuff, but must sleep now. Tomorrow is Carl Sagan Day. Maybe that will inspire me to write something scientific and clever … ;-) (one can hope at least).

Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob: November 7, Update A

2011-11-07T23:53:00.005-05:00

In true Monty Python manner, the Atlantic Hurricane Season says, “I’m not dead yet!” J

There’s a swirly blob in the Atlantic centered at 69.7W, 27N, just southwest of Bermuda. The NHC have marked this as having a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression. This looks like a tropical depression already to me. You can very nicely see the closed circulation if you look at the satellite images. Here's the latest IR image:

If you want to watch the video to see the swirliness, scroll down on this page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml until you see the heading ‘Atlantic Floater 1’. Click on Visible – Flash or IR – Flash to see the moving pictures (ooh, pretty). Looks like some nice closed circulation, doesn’t it? The vorticity (circulation) is actually very strong in the lower half of the troposphere and has the signature look of a tropical system. There is also considerable vorticity in the upper levels of the troposphere, but that is associated with a low pressure front.

There are two factors that are inhibiting this from developing. The IR satellite image shows very little convection which is because of the dry air around it, and the you can see the clouds streaming off to the north and east, which indicates wind shear.

It seems unlikely to me that this will develop very much more because of these two things, but it’s worth keeping an eye on just because the circulation is strong.

Ho hum. So much for an early nap! I’ll be back if this thinks of doing anything dodgy. The next name is Sean, in case we need to know such things.

Ciao!
J.

p.s. <Cool Astronomy!> As you know (or will know once you’ve read this), there’s a Large Asteroid in the ‘hood. It is the size of an aircraft carrier, or around 400m wide for those of us who haven’t got aircraft carrier sizes memorized. It will pass just slightly closer to Earth than the moon’s orbit. “Don’t Panic!” (HHGTTG). It is called ‘YU55’ (no relative of U2). The last time this sort of thing happened was in 1976, but the astronomers of the day forgot to set their alarms and didn’t know this had happened until it was too late. Having been caught snoozing once, they have already calculated the next time this will happen (other than tomorrow of course) will be in the year 2028. They have set their alarms for the year 2027 and 45 seconds… <end of Cool Astronomy!>

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Ex-Tropical Depression Rina and a new satellite: October 29, Update A

2011-10-29T08:58:00.002-04:00

As I expected, Tropical Storm Rina fell apart yesterday (Friday) morning so she was downgraded to a Tropical Depression, and by yesterday evening the NHC had stopped issuing advisories on her. She was too weak after her interaction with land and the wind shear was too strong for her. This is also my last update on Rina. Hurray! J I’ll keep an eye on that Atlantic blob, but will only write if it looks like it’s thinking about being more than a blob.

In response to the comment by the ‘Queen’ yesterday, Bryan from Florida said: “The Toronto Blue Jays and Montreal Expos are Major League Baseball teams outside of the US, and thus "World Series" is appropriate. ;)” I agree, that should have said ‘North America’, not just ‘America’. I’ll have to have a word with her writers. ;-)

<Interesting science news alert> There was a piece of very cool news this week (other than the two historic changes to the constitution regarding the British throne succession, which is also quite groovy). The next generation of climate/weather satellite was launched from California yesterday! It is called NPP and is a joint NASA/NOAA satellite (with some icing on the cake from the DoD). Here is the NPP mission badge:

You want to know why it’s called NPP? Here goes… it stands for NPOESS Preparatory Project. And what is NPOESS? That is the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System. So er, yeah, NPP for short works for me. Anyone want to try their hand at another acronym? (that’ll keep you busy for 2 minutes) ;-)

It is what is known as a polar-orbiting satellite because, as you can imagine, it orbits the earth in more of a north/south direction than an east/west direction and therefore flies close to the poles (not necessarily over them). I found this diagram on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) website which shows an example of how each orbit covers a different part of the earth:

The NPP has five fabulous instruments that will collect data on various things, such as the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere, the sea surface temperature, algal blooms in the ocean, the amount of sunlight being reflected by clouds, dust storms, changes in ice sheets and land cover. To find out more about these, check out NASA’s collection of posters… http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov/posters.html.

<end of interesting science news alert>

That’s it for now!

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Rina and the Atlantic Blob: October 27, Update A

2011-10-27T11:32:00.000-04:00

Today marks the one year anniversary of my return to the U.S. A.! At the end of this entry I will share a few words from the Queen to mark this event. But first, we have a storm and blob to chat about.

Tropical Storm Rina
She has been weakening at a nice stately pace all day, and is now officially a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 996mb. Her center is officially at 20.5N, 87.2W, just a tad west of the Island of Cozumel and she is moving northward at 7mph.

I agree with the NHC, she is most definitely a Tropical Storm. There is now no vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere, just in the lower half of the troposphere. I think she’s weaker than the 60mph winds suggest, but not by much. She is almost over land and she is experiencing some strong wind shear, so she should continue to weaken. However parts of her are still over very warm water (28-29 deg C), including the Yucatan Strait, where the upper 100-125m are warmer than 26 deg C. This means she has the resources to have a lot of convection. You can see this in the IR satellite image:

There is quite a bit of the red/grey, so there is a lot of thundery weather over the northern Yucatan peninsula. I imagine they are getting a bit wet! Most of this convection is to the north/northeast of the center because of the wind shear. She is really more of a water event than a wind event. The observed winds in Cancun are from the east at 29mph – not even Tropical Storm wind speeds there.

Her forecast track is fascinating. J

It is not often that we see a storm take such a southward path, so I had to grab the image for posterity. She won’t really be a tropical storm for too much longer so that southward track is about as useful as an ice cold beer in a blizzard. I don’t think she will be a Tropical Storm in 24 hours because she will have been over land for a number of hours by then. The official NHC forecast is a little slower and has her weakening to a Depression on Saturday morning. As she is pushed to the south (by a low pressure front that is currently sweeping through the Texas/Louisiana region), she will blend in with a large area of convection that is covering the Caribbean, so that whole area will be on the cloudy/drizzly side of things. Umm… anyone going on a Caribbean cruise soon? Time to get your umbrellas out as you sip your umbrella drinks on the top deck!

Speaking of that large area of convection over the Caribbean – the NHC have marked this as an area they are watching with a very lowly 10% chance of developing. I’m not too bothered about this area… it has no vorticity (circulation) of its own to speak of.

Atlantic Blob:
But there is another area of convection marked on the NHC map as having a 10% chance of developing. This is out in the Atlantic, at around 20N, 40W (ish). This has some nice vorticity in the lower half of the troposphere. It might not develop because wind shear is a bit strong but I’ll just watch it now and again.

And now, some selected words from the Queen. These were sent to me by Tom in St. Thomas and Greg in Florida – two sources! They must be true. J

<Begin Message>

To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

In light of your immediate failure to financially manage yourselves we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately. (You should look up 'revocation' in the Oxford English Dictionary.) Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except Kansas , which she does not fancy). Your new Prime Minister, David Cameron, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections. Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated sometime next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

1. The letter 'U' will be reinstated in words such as 'colour,' 'favour,' 'labour' and 'neighbour.'
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2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ''like' and 'you know' is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter 'u'' and the elimination of '-ize.’
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5. You will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.
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6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.
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10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English dialogue in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one's ears removed with a cheese grater.
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11. You will cease playing American football. There are only two kinds of proper football; one you call soccer, and rugby (dominated by the New Zealanders). Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).
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12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America . Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the Australians (World dominators) first to take the sting out of their deliveries.
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15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

<End message>

You know she’s being generous allowing you to have vegetable peelers? In the UK we have to use lollipop sticks.
Tally ho and toodle pip until tomorrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Rina: October 26, Update A

2011-10-26T19:55:00.003-04:00

With this post, some lucky person is going to be the 20,000th visitor to my blog website!! And that doesn’t include those of you who read this in your email. That is just simply mind-boggling and humbling to me! Thank you all. In honour (with a ‘u’ of course) of this, I shall be extra humble today.

Umm… umm… umm… ok, I give up. As Oscar Wilde said to the New York customs agent: “I have nothing to declare but my genius”. So, being the luminous and brilliant genius that I am, I shall continue with my normal babbling. ;-)

It turns out that Rina was weaker than her official intensity yesterday evening. After getting data from a hurricane hunter plane this morning, the NHC downgraded her at 11.45am (CDT) from a strong cat 2 with winds of 110mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) to a mid-level cat 1 with winds of 85mph (cat 1 range: 74-95 mph). Currently she is officially still a mid-level cat 1 storm with winds of 85mph, central pressure of 979mb. I would agree with this estimate. Although she needs a bit of make-up (she’s looking a bit ragged in the visible satellite image below), you can see that the convection is quite strong in the corresponding satellite IR image – lots of red and gray which indicates thunderstorms and stuff (technical term for ‘stuff’ ;-)).

Also, her vorticity (circulation) is good throughout the troposphere, which indicates that she is definitely a hurricane. She doesn’t really have an eye, so I would put her winds at below the ~90mph range. Yay! I agree with the NHC on the intensity… time to break open the champagne! ;-)

I don’t think she’ll get much stronger than she is at the moment. Wind shear is still low for most of the storm, but her northern edge is in an area of stronger shear which you can see in the visible satellite image as the clouds stream off to the northeast. Also, her western edge is interacting with the Yucatan peninsula now, which will help to keep her at a lower intensity. Working against this is the ocean… she is still over some very warm water – the surface temperatures are 28-29 deg C, and the upper 100-125m of the ocean is warmer than 26 deg C! So there is plenty for her to munch on, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the wind shear and land impact. It looks like this will be a bigger rain event than a wind event (although it will be windy) for the Yucatan. They will probably get some flooding.

She is currently centered at around 18.5N, 86.5W and is officially moving NW at 6mph. I think she’s actually moving a little more WNW, but it’s difficult to see her center of circulation because she’s a bit messy. Now for her track… oh fratteratterpeggaloomer! (oooh… that’s the first time I’ve used that word. How exciting! ;-)). I don’t have good resolution pressure fields for that area today. What a pickle. Looking at other clues: her forward speed is still on the slow side, which indicates that she is still struggling against a bit of high pressure in front of her – to the north and northwest. The center of the cone track has her making landfall tomorrow afternoon, but she doesn’t look like she’s close enough to the Yucatan yet for that to happen. At the moment it still looks to me like she’ll interact with the Yucatan area more than the center of the cone track indicates, which will decrease her intensity even more and she may just end up fizzling out in that area. For her to follow that center of cone track, she needs to make a pretty sharp NNW turn any minute now – we should definitely see this by tomorrow morning. I know some models are showing tracks as far north as Tampa Bay… “Don’t Panic” (HHGTTG) – it’s far too soon for that! ;-)

If she does anything interesting I might send out another update later tonight, otherwise tomorrow amigos!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Rina: October 25, Update A

2011-10-25T23:57:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Rina is turning out to be a bit too awkward for a not-quite-end-of-the-season pip squeak little storm! She’s moving soo sloowlllyyy and while she dilly dallys in the Caribbean the pressure fields around her continue to change, which makes track forecasting a bit tricky.

Officially she is at 17.5N, 84.8W, moving W at 3mph. Winds are now 110mph, making her a very strong cat 2/almost cat 3 (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). Central pressure is 966mb.

Track: Her track was shifted a little to the right this morning, but is beginning to shift back to the left now. Although the forecast track (below) still has her curving to the northeast after the Yucatan, today I think it will continue to shift to the left and may actually be over the Yucatan more than expected.

The reason is because the high pressure that I mentioned yesterday (that is causing her to move slowly) has expanded and is now a high pressure ridge stretching from central Mexico, across the Gulf and southern Florida and into Cuba. This means that she can’t move northwards, so she’ll keep moving very slowly to the west until there is a break in this high pressure. The NHC forecast is for this high to move to the east, so she will continue more-or-less on their forecast track. They have been rather good at their tracks in the past few storms and I don’t have any reason to doubt this at the moment. The problem is what will happen once she reaches the Yucatan. Until that high pressure shifts and she starts to move at a respectable hurricane-pace, it’s a little difficult to predict the track. So tomorrow we should watch her to see if she picks up forward speed because that would show that the high pressure is shifting to the east.

Intensity: Although she is officially a strong cat 2 storm, I think she might be a tad bit weaker at the moment. There is no eye, which I would expect with a storm that strong. Also, the convection is not as strong as it could be, and the upper level divergence (remember that?... if not, let me know and I’ll send out a reminder J) is fairly weak. The water is still warm, with the upper ~150m warmer than 26 deg C and there is also very little wind shear. I think she is not a cat 3 already because she is interacting with land (well, her outer bands are). I think I’d place her as a strong cat 1/weak cat 2 storm.

Hmm… I was expecting more clarity this evening (although after a glass or two of wine, what can you expect? ;-)). As I said yesterday, everyone should keep an eye on this one for now. I’ll be back tomorrow of course. We should know by then what she’s up to because the forecast has her speeding up and approaching the Yucatan tomorrow evening.

It be late here now. Night night and toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Rina: October 24, Update A

2011-10-24T19:24:00.001-04:00

No, I have not fallen asleep on the job! I will do that in December (umm… shhh… don’t tell my boss that ;-)). I was traveling (again) and have just done the ‘sea to shining sea’ thing. Now I’m back in sunny Florida after a quick visit to sunny California. By the way, has anyone been to the Getty Center? iPhone photo: ‘Sun over the Getty’:

It’s fabulous. You’ll need about 12 hours to see everything, but it’s nice to have a bit of culture now and again isn’t it? ;-)

Apparently Mother Nature hasn’t quite fallen asleep on the job either. I did manage to get a glimpse of a computer yesterday, just before Rina was officially a Tropical Depression… she looked like she was already a Tropical Storm at that point with good circulation in the entire lower half of the troposphere and a fair bit of convection. I think she was a hurricane by this morning, although she wasn’t officially upgraded until this afternoon when a plane returned data to indicate this. So far, I think the NHC have underestimated her intensity and she has NOT rapidly intensified from a TS to a Hurricane in a handful of hours.

She’s been holding steady at around 75 mph since her (ahem) “rapid intensification” earlier, making her a weak cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph). Central pressure is 989mb. She is currently located at 17.1N, 83.1W and is officially heading WNW at 3mph. The official track forecast has her heading WNW, then NW towards the Yucatan peninsula, clipping the Cancun region as a cat 2 storm (range: 96-110mph) before turning NE and back towards Cuba. The intensity forecast makes Rina a cat 3 storm on Weds, before she gets to the Yucatan.

Intensity: I agree that she’s a weak cat 1 at the moment… no eye is visible (yet). It is possible that she will get to a cat 3 because she is going to move over very warm water (29-31 deg C), with the upper 100-150m of the ocean warmer than 26 deg C (lots and lots of yummy ‘food’ for her). This area has some of the deepest warm water in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico region and we often see storms intensify if they pass overhead. There isn’t much wind shear at the moment and it doesn’t look like there will be too much as she moves over this part of the Caribbean, so I don’t see any real reason for her not to intensify. After the Yucatan her intensity will depend on how much she interacts with Cuba. Too soon to tell.

Track: There is a large range of possibilities with this storm. One of the problems is that she is bumping up against a high pressure to the northwest, which means she’s trying to move ‘uphill’… which is why she has slowed officially to a 3mph crawl at the moment (although I think she’s moving a little faster than that). It is a bit tricky for me to be able to assess her track today (as I only saw a glimpse of a computer yesterday), but I think she may head a little more to the right of the center of cone. If that’s what happens, she might not clip the Yucatan peninsula at all before she curves to the NE. I hope to have a better idea tomorrow!

There is a chance that she’ll go anywhere from the southern half of Florida to Cuba, and then across to the Bahamas (I’m currently expecting her to pass well south of the Keys). Everyone in this area should watch her just in case, and I’m not traveling this week (well, not far anyway J), so I’ll be ‘here’… standing on the sea wall, blowing the storm away if I can. ;-)

Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Gulf of Mexico Blobette and Atlantic Blob: October 17, Update A

2011-10-17T22:00:00.002-04:00

Well things are looking groovy out there. The Atlantic blob from yesterday has vanished off the NHC map. The vorticity (circulation) in the lower half of the troposphere has decreased, there is not much convection, and wind shear is strong. I’m not going to write about this one anymore unless it pops back up.

As for the Gulf of Mexico blobette, the Hurricane Hunter plane found no center of circulation so I didn’t have to get ‘quite cross’ at anyone. Good job people! The NHC have downgraded the chance for a tropical storm to 30%. Other than that, there isn’t much change from yesterday. The vorticity for this is still spread out over a large area. There is still some strong convection because it is still over very warm waters. The convection did start to decrease during the day today as the storm drifted across a patch of less warm (still 29-30 deg C though) water, but it has perked back up this evening because it is now over the leg of the Loop Current that flows out of the Gulf – between Cuba and the Florida Keys. I probably won’t say any more on this one either, unless it looks like it’s improving in any way. I expect raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens in the southern half of Florida.

Until the next time… or the end of the season (again).
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Gulf of Mexico Blobette and Atlantic Blob: October 17, Update A

2011-10-17T07:22:00.002-04:00

Here is the IR satellite image of the Atlantic Basin at the moment, so this is just a quick update on the two blobs that you can see out there at the moment. (Warning: I’ve not had my morning cup of tea yet, so don’t worry if words are a bit blurry).

Gulf of Mexico Blobette:
This one looks quite ferocious, doesn’t it? Well, its look is worse that its structure. There is some lower tropospheric vorticity (circulation), but it stretches from the Bahamas, southwest across southern Florida and the southern Gulf of Mexico, and then down to the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is not very well developed at all and there is nothing much in the mid-to-upper troposphere. It does, however, have a lot of convection – lots of thundery weather in there. The reason why the convection is so strong is because of the ocean. It is over the Loop Current, which enters the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Strait and leaves the Gulf through the Straits of Florida. The surface waters of the Loop Current are very toasty – over 31 deg C! and water warmer than 26 deg C can be found in the upper 150m of the water column! So any storm, tropical or not, that passes over this area is bound to have a lot of convection.

They give this a 60% possibility of becoming a storm in the next 48 hours and are sending in a plane to investigate this afternoon. I shall be quite cross if it returns saying this is a tropical storm (unless it somehow pulls itself together by this afternoon, but it’s been spread out all over the map for days and looks quite set in its ways). Apart from the minimal vorticity (circulation), there is a lot of wind shear (ranging from 30-60 knots!). You can see this because the clouds are streaming off to the northeast. We’ve had some spectacular sunsets over Florida because of the water vapor in the skies above. Exhibit A: a photo of yesterday’s sunset, taken by moi. Although I’m a photographic genius with an iPhone, even 3 year old with a toy camera wouldn’t have been able to mess this up.

Regardless of the name, this does have some strong thundery weather in it so southern Florida might be getting a few sploshes of rain and stuff over the next few days. Don’t forget to take your umbrella with you. And a towel (that Hitchiker’s Guide to the Galaxy knew what it was talking about!). ;-)

Atlantic Blob:
The other one I’ve been watching all weekend is the blob at around 10N, 40W. This one actually has more circulation in the lower half of the troposphere than the blobette, and it is confined to a relatively small area. However, as you can see, the convection doesn’t quite match and it is also in an area of some wind shear. At the moment it looks like wind shear will increase, so although I’ll watch this, I’m thinking that it won’t develop much.

More laterZ!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Ex-Florida Blobette: October 10, Update A

2011-10-10T20:55:00.003-04:00

No crayon drawings in yellow, orange or red on the NHC Atlantic map! You know what this means? It means this entry will be hobbit-like… yes, short (with big hairy feet). ;-)

The Florida blobette fizzled out (still some circulation, but no real convection anymore). As expected, it brought rain and a bit-o-wind, and there was much rejoicing …

Lane from Florida said: “Thirsty central Florida got a wonderful wet kiss from cute Blobette. Our beloved green swamp is happier today.”

Clay from Georgia said: “This is wonderful news for south Georgia's peanut country, and the Okeefenokee Swamp, which has burned a lot the last two years because of the low water and errant lightning strikes."

Andrea from North Carolina (but currently in SC) said: “I just thought you'd like to know that the surf is up here in North Myrtle Beach, SC.”

Anyway, that’s it for this blobette. It would be symmetrically fitting if this was the last one of the season because the first blobette was also a Florida Blobette (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/06/june-2-update.html). We shall see.

I’ll be back when there’s another one or if something interesting crops up or, dare I say it, at the end of the season! Whatever shall I do with all this spare time? Umm… let me think, oh yes, I’m supposed to be helping out with this project: http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/runicfilms/cowboy-creed-short-film. Enjoy! J (And please pass it along if you are entertained… the more the merrier. J).

Toodle pippy!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Florida Blobette: October 9, Update A

2011-10-09T22:05:00.002-04:00

Not quite as windy as yesterday, but certainly wetter here today on the west-central coast of Florida. It rained almost non-stop and I thoroughly enjoyed it... it’s just like a fine Autumn day in the UK (minus the palm trees of course). J

Although the vorticity (circulation) in the lower troposphere is stronger today, it still remains spread out over a large area that stretches from the Bahamas north to central-Florida and then south again into the Gulf. The NHC say the center of this broad area of low pressure is not well defined, but is about 50 miles SE of Cape Canaveral. I agree that there is a region that looks like a center of circulation just off the east coast of Florida, but it also looks like there’s a smaller (connected) area of circulation off southwest Florida as well… which is why I think this is (at the moment) a very disorganized big blobette. You can see these two areas in the IR image – they correspond to the convection in these two areas:

A chunk of this blobette is over the Florida Current (Gulf Stream) so it will produce a lot of rainfall because that ocean current is toasty warm (around 30 deg C) and water warmer than 26 deg is in the upper 100m. However I’m not sure if this will develop into anything much because wind shear is very strong (40-50 knots!) and this is so close to land. This blobette is moving northwestwardish at 10mph, so most of the northern half of Florida and areas to the north (GA, AL) and can expect some wellie-boots and brolly weather over the next couple of days.

I shall dedicate this ‘tropical’ weather to my family and friends over in the UK.

More tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Philippe and the Bahamian/Florida Blobette: October 8, Update A

2011-10-08T18:58:00.008-04:00

I think Tropical Storm Philippe has been a simulacrum of his former self since yesterday. (Oooh… big word alert! :-)).

Officially Philippe is still a Tropical Storm, with estimated winds of 50mph and central pressure of 994mb. He is heading NE at 30mph, and is centered at around 35.3N, 46W. I think he is much weaker than that and has been since yesterday. Here is the latest Infra-red satellite image of him:

You can see that there is barely any convection left in this system, and the vorticity (circulation) is mostly connected to that front that I showed you a couple of days ago instead of being a stand-alone blob of vorticity, which is what we would expect to see in a tropical storm. Another indication that he’s no longer a tropical storm is that he is moving forward at 30mph. With very few exceptions, this fast forward speed indicates that other things are afoot (and aloft ;-)). This is my last entry on Philippe.

I’m sure most readers aren’t to bothered about Philippe now anyway… you all want to know what is developing in the Bahama/Florida region, don’t you? It’s been a magnificently breezy and cool day here in St. Petersburg (Florida), I must say. It reminds me of a lovely blustery day in the UK. :-)

I’ve been watching this blobette all day. This morning it did not have any vorticity (circulation) to speak of, however that is slowly slowly changing and it now has an itsy-bitsy teeny-weeny amount in the lowest level of the troposphere. This is not enough to make this into anything at the moment, but the trend is in the right direction and I’ll be watching this one (you might get more than one update from me tomorrow!). The center of this vorticity (circulation) is currently split into two connected areas – one is over the Bahamas, just north of Cuba, and the other is in the Gulf near southwest Florida/the Keys. It really is very much a blobette at the moment. The convection is also not very strong, and is also spread out over a large area, as you can see in this IR satellite image:

If the circulation continues to improve and it can pull itself together, we might have a little system off the east coast of Florida, which might head north towards Georgia (too soon to say because it’s not really developed). However, I agree with the NHC, it will be making things a bit windy and slightly wet even if it doesn’t develop into anything formal. The next name is Rina! Rina, really? >From that font of all knowledge, Google, Rina is a girl’s name variant of a bunch of other names and is not a name in and of itself. Anyone know a non-variant Rina? Have they used all the she-‘R’ names up already? Still, it’s easy to say and spell. :-)

Enjoy your Saturday! It’s wine-o-clock time where I am. :-) More tomorrow … assuming I haven’t got blown away! ;-)
Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Philippe: October 6, Update A

2011-10-06T22:50:00.002-04:00

I go away for a couple of days and oh how the world changes! Speaking of world changing…

Steve Jobs died yesterday, but he certainly made the most of his life and what a truly amazing legacy he left! Thank you for my iPhone, Marvin. (You ask, why Marvin? Heehee… brain the size of a planet, and I mostly use it as a simple communication device. ;-) Of course, after Marvin the depressed robot from The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy – another work of genius. One day I’ll figure out how to get apps….)

Now, Hurricane(!) Philippe. Just after my last entry, as expected, his center was officially ‘re-located’ to the south (probably because it didn’t like the neighbours). Rewinding a couple of days, he carried on westwardish for a while, and then did, indeed, make a nice sharpish turn to the NW, then North and is now heading NE at 13mph. The reason he took this track is because of the front that brought that wonderful, delightful, perfect cooler weather to much of the eastern US last weekend. It carried on moving east, across the Atlantic. I grabbed a water vapor satellite image a couple of days ago to show you:

The front is that line of clouds that extends from northeast to southwest in the Atlantic, and Philippe is at around 23-25N, 60W. He was being guided by that line of clouds. And here is a Water Vapor image from today.

You can see that he has sort of started to merge with that cold front.

His center is at around 29N, 58.4W, with winds of 85mph and a central pressure of 980mb. This means he is a mid-size cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph). He was officially upgraded to a weak cat 1 hurricane this morning. I don’t think he will remain a hurricane for too long because the wind shear is getting stronger.

And finally for today… Here’s to the Crazy Ones (narrated by Steve Jobs): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rwsuXHA7RA&feature=player_embedded#t=4s

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Ex-Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 3, Update A

2011-10-03T22:04:00.002-04:00

Hurray, another one down! Yes, Ophelia is no more. She took so long that I’ve forgotten the great final Shakespeare quote I had lined up for her. One woe doth tread upon another’s heel. Bother. ;-)

She went over the tip of Newfoundland earlier today. She looked like she was mostly cloudy at that point, maybe a splash of rain… so I’m not sure the Newfoundlanders would have noticed anything unusual. ;-) The NHC’s last entry on Ophelia at 11am AST had her at 48.1N, 52W moving ENE at 37mph. Winds were 60mph and her central pressure was estimated to be 996mb, so she was still at Tropical Storm level, but she wasn’t a Tropical Storm anymore so I agree with their decision to call her ‘post-tropical’. This is my last entry on Ophelia as well.

Tropical Storm Philippe is still clinging on. Officially he is at around 24.6N, 56.6W, heading WSW at 12mph. Winds are apparently 65mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 997mb. Hmm. Well, as with many other storms, I agree with the NHC on his name at least. ;-) He’s a bit of a messy system, so it’s not easy to figure out where the center is. It kinda looks like it is around 24N, 57W to me, which is a bit south of his current center and also south of the center of cone track. That pesky niggling voice in my head is telling me that if the center is not where they think it should be, that track might not be quite right. SO… by this time tomorrow I expect him to be somewhere closer to 25N, 61W heading WNW if he is on the forecast track.

He is pretty weak though. I don’t think his winds are 65mph. Here is the IR satellite image:

Not much convection really. I expect they will reduce his wind speed soon. Although his circulation is good, he is still in a region of decent wind shear at the moment. However, it does look like that might weaken for a short time, in which case he’ll be looking a bit better by tomorrow.

That’s all I got for today. I’m traveling tomorrow (surprise!) to the lovely Keys, but will try and check in later in the day. Speaking of traveling, watch this super cool video (thanks to Sharon in Florida for sharing this): http://vimeo.com/27246366.

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 2, Update A

2011-10-02T20:26:00.001-04:00

I had a very nice weekend, and I understand that it was a breeze on Bermuda too (puns always intended ;-)). Steve on Bermuda says they didn’t get much of anything (“rain and a squall, but nothing of note”) as Ophelia, then officially a strong cat 3/cat 4 storm (!!), went by. I am not 100% convinced that she went up to a cat 4. But I am glad dinky little Bermuda was not too dashelled!

Hurricane Ophelia
At the moment she is officially a cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph), with winds of 90mph. This might be a slight overestimate, because she doesn’t have an eye and has fairly weak convection, but I’d agree with a cat 1 status.

As you can see, the IR satellite image shows weak convection and the lack of an eye. She is currently at 42.4N, 59.8W, heading NNE at a rapid 33mph. Central pressure is 967mb. I agree with the forecast track which will take her to Newfoundland tonight/early tomorrow.

<science alert> In this case, I would say that although she is moving forward at a rapid pace, she is still a tropical storm. I have not always agreed with the assessment of a fast moving storm being tropical. The reason she is moving forward at such a rapid rate is because there is a region of high atmospheric pressure to her right and a region of low atmospheric pressure to her left, and she is caught between the two. Normally, storms only have the high atmospheric pressure (the Bermuda/Azores High) to move around, which is why they move at a nice stately pace in a clockwise manner around the Atlantic (my earlier blurb on the Bermuda/Azores High and its effects on storm track: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/08/tropical-storm-emily-august-3-update.html). However, at the moment Ophelia has a region of low atmosphere pressure to her left. In the northern hemisphere, things move anti-clockwise around low pressure systems. So essentially, she is being pushed by both the high and the low – it’s a double effect, which means she’s zooming along there. <end of science alert>

Tropical Storm Philippe
The force is strong with this one, but so too is the wind shear! He has circulation throughout the troposphere, and it is as strong as Ophelia’s in the lower levels. But he is under some considerable wind shear, so although he is trying and trying, he hasn’t yet managed to get to hurricane strength. He was close yesterday, when they increased his winds to 70mph, but the winds are back down to 50mph now. He is currently at 26.2N, 53.1W, officially moving WNW at 12mph (it looks like he’s actually moving W or WSW). Central pressure is estimated to be 1003mb. The convection is all on the south/southeast side of the center. It looks like wind shear will remain pretty decent, so it seems unlikely he’ll be a hurricane any time soon. The forecast track still has him making a sharpish right turn on Tuesday/Weds:

This is a likely scenario, but the data I have is not good enough for me to be able to determine that for myself. The reason this is likely is because that low pressure that is to the left of Ophelia is moving eastwards and so the ‘plan’ is that it should make room for Philippe to turn to the NE quite quickly once it gets into the Atlantic.

That’s it for now. Time to get ready for a fun-filled work week ahead! Woo-hoo.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 1, Update A

2011-10-01T12:04:00.003-04:00

Welcome to October… only another TWO months of the hurricane season left to go! Ha.

Hurricane Ophelia
Officially she is at 29.5N, 62.9W, heading N at 21mph. Winds are still 120mph, so she’s a mid-level cat 3 storm (range: 111-130mph) and the central pressure is 952mb. It looks like she’s far enough to the east of Bermuda that they won’t get any hurricane level winds (74 mph or higher), but they will get tropical storm conditions. It looks like they have already had some rain from a rain band (according to satellite images). Hurricane force winds extend out to about 40 miles from the center.

I agree with the NHC on her forecast track:

Although she has a lovely eye (satellite images below) and excellent circulation, the convection is pretty low for a cat 3 as you can see in the IR satellite image (there is none of that really strong red or grey colouring that indicate really tall thunder clouds/deep convection), so it is possible she might actually be strong cat 2.

Last night the most important thing on Steve’s mind was: “ the Australian Rules Football grand final. Starts in about 3/4 hour. Collingwood play Geelong.” Sounds er… fascinating. ;-)

Tropical Storm Philippe
Officially he is at 24.8N, 48W, moving WNW at 9mph. Winds are still estimated to be 50mph, with an estimated central pressure of 1004mb. You’ll be pleased to know his official location today passes my quality controls, so I agree with the NHC on that. J I think he might be a tad weaker than 50mph, but it still means he is a weak Tropical Storm, so that’s all groovy.

His forecast track looks very silly at the moment, with an acute right turn in his track on Tuesday:

As I said yesterday, this is because the models are essentially basing this on him heading towards the largest low out there… Ophelia. There is a physical reason to do this and it’s not just a whimsical quirk of the models; It is because she will erode the high pressure he is stuck in. I don’t have the ability at the moment to say how much and how effective that will be by Tuesday, so for now, we’ll just keep watching him struggle to keep going. Although water temperatures are a lovely 29 deg C, and Philippe has more warm water under the ocean he is hanging out over than Ophelia does, he is facing considerable more wind shear in the atmosphere than she is, which is why he is struggling.

That’s it for now. More later!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 30, Update A

2011-09-30T23:11:00.002-04:00

Oh great googliemooglies and blisterin’ barnacles!! Bermudians, I hope you are ready! Ophelia exceeded everyone’s expectations today.

Hurricane Ophelia
In my opinion I think the official forecast has been underestimating her for days, but none of us were expecting her to get quite this strong. Officially she is now a mid-sized cat 3 and a very good looking storm with 120mph winds (cat 3 range: 111-130mph). The eye has been clear and steady for hours, so she might actually be closer to a cat 4 I think. Here are visible and IR satellite images of the Atlantic:

Despite this being a night-time view, doesn’t Ophelia look good? We can see Bermuda is just on the northwestern edge of the outer cloud bands.

Although she is strong, there are some things that are working in Bermuda’s favour:

1.Currently her convection is not as strong as it could be – you can see stronger convective activity just north of Cuba, with that area of red in the IR image. Remember, red means that the cloud tops are cold, which means they are deep, and usually have strong thunderstorms with possible tornados thrown in here and there.

2.There is still a bit of wind shear acting on her, and you can see that because she’s not completely circular, but has a streaming mass of clouds to the northeast.

3.She will pass to the east of the island. Although the NHC did not officially shift her to a Northward track until today, she’s been heading North since yesterday from what I’ve seen, which is why her track (and the forecast track) has been shifting to the east of the forecast since yesterday. The unknown part is how much of her will clip Bermuda. Hopefully it’ll be just a bit breezy tomorrow, with a couple of pockets of rain. If you look at the IR satellite, you can see a front that is moving off the US… also heading in Bermuda’s direction. They might get clouds from that if they don’t have much from Ophelia… but at least it won’t be as windy. Meteorologically speaking, it’s all very interesting stuff!

I’ve heard from Steve on Bermuda. They have been preparing – the usual drill. Wrap things in tarps, have a drink, move things away from windows, get the candles, have a drink, make sure there is enough water, beer, wine, ice cream, have a drink, batteries for the radio, matches etc. (umm… that’s my preparation list anyway ;-)). He’d like to know if anyone has got any ideas on where to park the car?

She is currently at 25.9N, 63W and is doing a good job at following that center of cone track (now) – only moving slightly east of that center line. She is moving rapidly northward at 16mph, and has a minimum pressure of 956mb. Interestingly, the lower level convergence and upper level divergence are not as strong as they could be (or were yesterday and earlier today), which might be an indication that she might weaken as she gets closer to Bermuda (I’m not sure of this though – it could be a blip). Water temperatures for both storms are around 27-29 deg C; certainly warm enough to sustain them. Ophelia should pass Bermuda late tomorrow afternoon.

Tropical Storm Philippe
In comparison, Philippe looks like a baby. However, you can see (in the IR satellite image) that his convection is stronger than Ophelia’s, even if his structure or circulation is not as well developed. He is under considerably more wind shear than his bigger sister, and it looks like that will persist for a while. Officially he is at around 23.5N, 46.2W, moving NW at 13mph. Winds are 50mph, with a central pressure of 1004mb. I am not sure he’s moving quite that fast, but the location and direction are about right. This morning the NHC wrote in their 11am advisry: “FINALLY...WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER DISSIPATED...AND A NEW CENTER FORMED FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.” This confused me, because I saw a clear center yesterday. Maybe they don’t look at their own satellite images? And the ‘previously estimated center dissipated and a new center formed’? Really? Tut tut tut. Obviously they don’t read my wonderfully enlightening blog (ahem, probably just as well really ;-))! Their ‘estimated’ center looked off to me a couple of days ago… I think they were finally beginning to move in the right direction on this one yesterday evening.

I see they finally moved his forecast track so it’s making more of a beeline for Bermuda. And why not? They are already prepared for stormy weather so what’s one more, hey? ;-) Actually, part of this is because the forecast track is following Ophelia, which is the biggest low in the Atlantic at the moment. The models will have him track towards that beacon of lowness (not a technical term! ;-)). The actual track is a little tricky for me to see, because he is surrounded by high pressure again and because the models are following Ophelia (and he will try and follow her too by the way). Maybe tomorrow or the following day it will become clearer. The NHC think he will have deteriorated into a Tropical Depression by Monday anyway.

For those whose interest was piqued by the science research cruise out there… an update from Dale on the JOIDES Resolution (which was drilling at around 22.7N, 46W): “To move out of Philippe's path we moved NE yesterday from early morning until late in the evening on a hdg of ~44 degrees, this morning we are on a heading of 145 degrees to get behind Philippe and move back onto the drill site. Colleagues on the Canary Islands report a dust storm impacting their location this morning and predict it will be over us sometime tomorrow evening around 1800 hours. So far I collected a number of microorganisms from the atmosphere. Also looking at the influence of aerosol deposition on microbial communities in surface waters...seas have been relatively smooth so far..........” Thanks Dale!

Please stay safe on Bermuda. Send me updates if you are able. I’ll check in and see what’s what tomorrow morning too.

There will be more tomorrow. Bye for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 29, Update A

2011-09-29T23:31:00.004-04:00

Ophelia says: “September 29 is National Coffee Day. I had 12 cups today. Can you tell?” ;-)

And here are some interesting US coffee factoids for all you coffee beans out there: http://www.livescience.com/16297-coffee-facts-national-coffee-day-infographic.html

What I want to know is when is it National Tea Day? Gosh darn it.

Hurricane Ophelia
She put on a good show today and pulled herself together to become our next hurricane this afternoon. She is currently at about 21.9N, 62.3W, and looking like she’s heading northward to me, which means she is slightly east of the forecast track at the moment. Officially she’s moving NNW at 9mph. If she carries on northward, there is a chance that she’ll miss Bermuda and skirt to the east of the island, however at the moment they are in the cone of whiteness and should be getting ready.

Winds are now at 85mph, so she’s a mid-size category 1 (range: 74-95mph) with a central pressure of 984mb. She did develop an eye for a short while a couple of hours ago, which indicates that the winds are, indeed, probably closer to the 90mph range. Her circulation is very strong in the lower troposphere, and there is a pretty nice signal in the upper troposphere as well. I have no doubts that she’s a hurricane, and agree with the NHC in their analysis today (about Ophelia anyway). Both the lower level convergence and upper level divergence (remember those?) are also really good. Her convection is not as strong as I’ve seen in other category 1 storms, however it is fluctuating, so I’m not placing too much emphasis on that for now. She is definitely a solid cat 1 storm. There is a bit of wind shear, but she’s strong enough that it won’t have too much of an impact. However, as she moves north the water temperatures cool from the current 27-28 deg C, so I don’t know if she will really get much bigger than the forecast cat 1.

I heard from Steve on Bermuda. He is very concerned that she’ll get there on Saturday night. The biggest problem he is facing is that the rain will water down his beer (having never been to Bermuda, I assume this is because Bermudian pubs don’t have roofs?). Watered down beer… isn’t that called American beer? (I’m not a beer drinker, I just repeat what I’m told…).

Tropical Storm Philippe
As much as I agree with the NHC on their analysis of Ophelia throughout the day today, I have to say I disagree with what they said about poor Philippe. Just because he’s farther away doesn’t mean he’s any less important. Poor fella.

I’m not convinced his center has been in the correct location for the bulk of today. At the 5am advisory he was still too far south. Officially he was at 17.8N, 41.7W moving WNW at 13mph. At the 11am advisory, he was at 18.6N, 42.6W, moving NW at 13mph. Here are two visible satellite snapshots, one at 13:15UTC, which is about 8.15am EST, and the other at 18:15UTC which is about 1.15pm EST:

In the earlier image, I don’t see his center near 18N, 41.7W… it looks closer to 19N if anything. In the second image it looks like it is closer to 20N. At 5pm they had him at 20.2N, 43.6W, which I think was far more reasonable, although he was still heading NW at 13 mph. I don’t think he’s heading NW, but is moving WNW at the moment. Now he looks like he is around 21.2N, 44.0W and heading westwardish (officially he is still heading NW at 13mph).

Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 1004mb. I agree with this overall intensity estimate… his convection is pretty weak, and his circulation is strong only in the lower half of the troposphere. However, I think his winds are a bit stronger than 45mph. His upper divergence and lower convergence is very good. I think there is room for him to improve because wind shear looks like it might decrease for a short while and, if he continues westward(ish), he is heading towards an area of warmer water (28-29 deg C, instead of his current 27-28 deg C).

I received this report from Dale, a scientist, who is sampling dust (remember the Saharan Air Layer that was so instrumental earlier in this season) on a Research Vessel in the Atlantic: “Philippe was heading right for us... we were at ~46W, 22N...thought I was going to get the opportunity to sample the aerobiology of a storm eye...that would have been great.....but no, the JOIDES Resolution is currently underway on a NE course to get out if Philippes way...have been underway since early this morning moving at about 21 k/hr...plan is to stop at some point late tonight and the turn around and head back to the drill sites....currently the seas are smooth with a light swell....nice enough to water ski”.

Yup, if they had stayed at around 22N, 46W, it would have been a rather interesting expedition. In case you are wondering, the JOIDES Resolution that he mentions is a Deep Sea Drilling Research Vessel. “JOIDES” is an acronym and stands for Joint Oceanographic Institutions for Deep Earth Sampling (speaking from experience, let me tell you that it’s a fine art to get a good science-acronym-name… I have to say, I’m pretty rubbish at it). The “Resolution” part is in honour of the HMS Resolution, Captain James Cook’s vessel from the 1770s. Just in case you missed my rather BIG clue earlier (hint: ‘Deep Sea Drilling Research Vessel’), the JOIDES Resolution drills in the deep sea (well, it drills into the earth under the deep sea). J The samples of earth it collects are called ‘cores’, and they are analyzed back in labs to figure out the past history of our fabulous planet. Of course, a research cruise can have other things going on as well, such as atmospheric sampling of dust and microbes (Dale’s work), or running away from Tropical Storms.... ;-) You can find out more for yourself here: http://joidesresolution.org/, including cool pictures!

Toodles!
J.

p.s. thanks to Gene in Florida for getting the report to me from Dale in the Atlantic).

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Ophelia and Philippe: September 28, Update A

2011-09-29T00:00:00.002-04:00

I’m running a tad bit late… I was doing my homework (i.e. watching episodes of Dr. Who ;-)).

Tropical Storm Ophelia
Officially she’s at 19.4N, 60.7W, heading NW at 6mph. Winds are now 60mph, so she’s a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), with a central pressure of 995mb. The forecast calls for her to become a strong cat 1 hurricane on Friday, and crossing Bermuda on Saturday evening (as a hurricane). You guys must be used to this by now though! Steve, make sure you have your tea before the storm arrives this time.

She doesn’t look quite as robust today as she was looking yesterday (when she wasn’t even officially a Tropical Depression), but the wind shear has chopped her circulation off a bit so we can quite easily see her center of circulation. The islands had a relatively lucky time, because not only was the wind shear from the west (which means most of the convection was on her east side), but also she’s finally decided to make a move! Hurray. She’s heading northward(ish) at a slow pace. I agree with her location and direction, but I’m not sure wind speeds are as high as 60mph. Here are the visible and IR satellite images:

You can see that she is experiencing wind shear and is not very well put together at the moment.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Officially he’s at 17.4N, 40.8W heading WNW at 13mph. Winds are still those of a weak Tropical Storm, and are at 45mph with a central pressure of 1005mb.

He is a little more classic looking - a fine shape and demeanor. J Although officially he is a weaker storm than Ophelia, he does actually look stronger and better developed. Here are the IR and visible satellite images for Philippe as well, so you can see the difference between the two storms:

I’m not sure I agree with his central location either, but it’s night time so it is a bit tricky for me to see that anyway. It looks like he might be about 1 degree to the north.

The forecast track continues to shift to the west, instead of that silly NW track they had when he first emerged. I agree with a more westward track for now.

Both storms are very similar in terms of the amount of circulation they have. It’s just the convection that differs. It looks like Ophelia might continue to experience more wind shear than Philippe, so I’m not sure she will even turn into a hurricane.

Keeping with our Shakespeare theme (cos we’re so edumucated ;-)), if you find yourselves in London next year, Shakesperian plays will be performed at The Globe Theater… in sign language and hip-hop. I’ve seen one of his plays as a hip-hop musical. It was brilliant. Here’s the scoop: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-15058047?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter.

Night night until it be morrow,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 27, Update A

2011-09-28T00:17:00.002-04:00

<Warning: tinged with a slight hint of sarcasm> For the last couple of days I’ve been calling Ophelia a Tropical Depression when really, officially, she wasn’t even that. I suppose I must have been hallucinating about the circulation and convection that she has had over the past 24 hours! However earlier this evening, after a plane went in to investigate, the NHC decided she was good enough to be reclassified as a weak Tropical Depression. Here are a couple of satellite images (visible and IR) of the Atlantic Basin, before she was ‘upgraded’ to a Tropical Depression:

You can see her just east of the Caribbean, and you can see the much stronger Tropical Storm Philippe in the eastern Atlantic… obviously she was much weaker than Philippe. <end of slight hint of sarcasm. Maybe.>

Tropical Depression Ophelia
In keeping with tradition, I expect they will turn her into a Tropical Storm when she’s over one of the islands. ;-) Although it looked like some of the islands have had a dollop of rain with a side of windy weather already (IR satellite image):

Officially she is now at 18.4N, 59.5W, moving NW at a very slow 3mph. Winds are 35mph and central pressure is 1009mb. I think they might have missed the boat on this one. I think she was a Tropical Storm, but in the last few hours wind shear has increased and the vorticity (circulation) has weakened, so it looks like she might be tiring herself out a bit. The latest satellite images show a much weaker storm than earlier today. I can’t quite tell where the center is, although it looks a little south and east of that official location. It is also a bit tricky seeing which direction she’s heading in because she is still surrounded by high pressure. A slow NW or WNW movement is not beyond the realms of possibility. There are two factors that will work in weakening her… in addition to wind shear increasing, I’m sure the water temperature under her is cooler by now because she’s been stuck in that vicinity for about 2.5-3 days now (thank goodness she didn’t get stuck over land!). The islands might just have a lucky break if says ‘farewell’ before she can move.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Philippe is officially at 16.1N, 37W, heading WNW at 10mph. Winds are 40mph, so he’s barely a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), and central pressure is 1006mb.

I am pretty sure the NHC did not have this little guy at the correct location or correct heading over the last 24 hours. At the 11pm advisory yesterday he was at 15.9N, 34.8W, heading NW at 8mph. At 5am this morning he was at 16.1N, 35.1W, heading NW at 7mph. At 11am today, he was at 15.8N, 35.3W heading NW at 5mph. At 5pm today he was at 16N, 36W heading WNW at 7mph, and now he’s at 16.1N, 37W heading WNW at 10mph. So somehow he’s consistently had a northward component to his motion, but went from 16.1N to 15.8N… hmm. Also, looking at the forecast track from a day or two ago, he is definitely farther south and west than they expected (they also had forecasted that he would be a hurricane by Monday afternoon, so that part didn’t go as they expected either). At least now they have started to move his forecast track a little more westward than directly NW! And I would agree with his direction and speed of travel.

I also agree that he is a very weak Tropical Storm. Wind shear has resulted in the convection being mostly on the northeast side of the center of circulation. But once that shear kicked in (this morning), it became much easier to see his center of circulation (visible satellite image):

Although his convection is weak, I have to say his circulation is rather strong throughout the lower half of the troposphere. If he manages to get away from this wind shear and convection picks up, he could intensify into a rather good looking little storm – but that doesn’t look likely in the next day at least, if at all.

We’ll see what our little friends do tomorrow. I think they are both interesting (i.e. a little tricky to predict beyond a day or so) for the same two reasons for now – they are surrounded (more or less) by high pressure, and they are experiencing fairly strong wind shear.

Night night!
Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 26, Update A

2011-09-26T21:53:00.004-04:00

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more! I can’t help it, you’re stuck with Shakespeare until Ophelia vanishes and today is not the day for that.

Tropical Depression Ophelia
The storm-formerly-known-as-Tropical-‘Depression’-Ophelia is most unlike Hamlet’s Ophelia; she’s not really depressed and looks like she’s all set to make a dramatic re-entry onto the Atlantic stage, quoting Monty Python: “I’m not dead…. I’m getting better” ;-). Although she still had some lower level circulation and convection yesterday, she was looking a bit disheveled. But today she’s thrown on a new costume and some make-up and is looking quite lively again. The NHC currently have her at a 60% chance of forming into a Tropical Storm, but here is a visible satellite movie of her: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html, and here's a visible satellite still picture as well:

Even though it is night, you can see the circulation and some of the outflow clouds around the edges (If you need a refresher on ‘outflow’, it’s in this entry: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/08/hurricane-irene-atlanic-blob-august-24.html). A Tropical Storm by any other name would still be a Tropical Storm.

Her circulation is now quite strong in the lower half of the troposphere (although not as strong as Philippe’s). She’s still experiencing a bit of wind shear, but it’s weaker than it was yesterday. I expect those on the islands are watching her every move like an adoring audience. Unfortunately I don’t have enough information to be able to determine which direction she’s going to move, but for now she looks like she’s a bit stuck there with high pressure all around. At a guess I’d say her center is around 18N, 58W and she’s moving westwardish very slowly. The NHC say she’s moving NW, but that the northern islands can expect heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Officially he is currently at 15.4N, 34.4W, moving NW at 8mph. Winds have not changed since yesterday and continue to be 60mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 997mb. I think he might be a fraction stronger than this, but not quite a hurricane, so I agree with his Tropical Storm status. I’m not sure I agree as much about his location and direction. He has slowed down, which is what I expected because he had high pressure ahead of him. I am still not convinced his center is at that location or that he is moving NW, but I forgot to have a look at him during daylight hours and the visible satellite image is a bit murky now:

Oopsie. I’ll try and remember to pay more attention tomorrow. Poor, neglected Philippe! ;-) But really, does it look like his center is at 15.4N, 34.4W to you from this image? I don’t see it. It also doesn’t look like he’s moving anywhere in particular, which is what I would expect because he has high pressure to his east, north, and west. The only way for him to move at the moment would be south a bit, but I’m not sure if he’ll get an opportunity to do that.

Hurray, I finished an entry before midnight! J Maybe I’ll have a glass of wine to celebrate. Oh, and I reckon we should all try this at least once a day… “Smile: It confuses people.” ;-) (thanks for that one Tom!)

J.

p.s. Ben from California kindly pointed out that I made a grievous error in my adaptation of Shakespeare yesterday. The line should be “Alas, poor Ophelia, I knew her”. No “well” anywhere in sight! Doh! Apparently *some* people know their Shakespeare. ;-)

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 25, Update A

2011-09-26T00:02:00.003-04:00

Apparently there *are* more than five people on this planet who know what New Orleans International Airport’s MSY stands for. I’m impressed... it took me ages (that would be ‘internet ages’, not ‘geological ages’) to find the answer! Mike from Louisiana was fastest on the buzzer… MSY is Moisant Stock Yard. Later I’ll tell you the story I found on the internet... by the way, I believe everything I read on the internet. Don’t you? (<--- especially if you read this on my blog site ;-) ).

As we expected, Ophelia is now officially no longer a Tropical Storm, and Philippe has been eating his spinach.

Tropical Depression Ophelia
She woke up this morning and decided she wasn’t going to follow the NHC forecast track after all. Which self-respecting storm does these days anyway? ;-) Instead she took a left turn and headed west towards the rum (and the islands in the northeastern Caribbean). This path makes a lot more sense to me because I was expecting her to be thirsty after crossing the Atlantic… er, I mean I expected her to be passing closer to the islands (south of their track). But they kept shifting the forecast track to the north, and given their pretty good track record (ha ha, puns intended ;-)) for the past two-three storms, I thought I was misreading the tea-leaves! (I’ll just have to have a few more cups of tea next time ;-)).

The NHC finally decided she was no longer a Tropical Storm and issued their last advisory on her at 5pm this evening. At that time (about 6 hours ago) she was at 18.5N, 60.9W, heading WNW at 8mph (so she’s slowed down quite a bit). Winds were 35mph, central pressure 1010mb.

I agree with downgrading her. Alas poor Ophelia, we knew her well. Her vorticity (circulation) is very weak now, although the convection has improved closer to the ‘center’. I think I’ll keep writing about her for a bit longer, because she still does have a bit of circulation and the islands will get some windy, possibly rainy weather over the next couple of days. The main convection is east of the ‘center’, which I’m estimating is around 18.5N, 61W.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Here is a visible satellite image of Philippe (taken at night, so he’s not as good looking as he would be during daylight):

He looks like a storm, which is a relief because that’s what he is. ;-) Officially he is at 14.1N, 32.5W, supposedly heading NW at 12mph. I’m not convinced of any of this. He looks like he is south and west of that location, and he’s heading in a more westward direction. He might even be slower, I can’t tell what his speed is, but I do know that there is high pressure to his north, and also in front of him, which might slow him down a bit.

His winds are 60mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), so he’s a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 997mb. Wind shear is very weak, and if he is actually going more westward than NW, it will stay weak for longer, so he’ll have a bit more room to intensify. Circulation is strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and convection is slowly getting stronger.

That’s all I got for storms. Now for the Intriguing Tale of MSY:
The Louis Armstrong New Orleans International airport has MSY as its code because no city beginning with K, W, or N can have that as their first initial in their airport code - those are the letters used for radio, TV and the Navy stations. John Moisant was a well-known pioneer aviator in the late 1800s/early 1900s. He died in a plane accident on the last day of 1910 in the current location of the airport. In his honour, the land was named by the owners (who had cattle) as Moisant Stock Yards. The city bought this land, and kept the airport name as Moisant Field. And ta-da… MSY. J

Dede from Alabama sent an interesting personal historical note: “It stands for Moisant airport, which is what the name was when I was a girl before jet airplanes were invented. Really--there was a time when only small propeller planes flew from that airport. Actually, the first jet plane I ever saw was flying out of that airport. I thought it was a miracle the way it went STRAIGHT UP!” How things have changed.

Until tomorrow,
Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Ophelia and Philippe: September 24, Update A

2011-09-24T23:08:00.002-04:00

Hello there! I have returned from New Orleans… well, to be precise, I have returned from the world-famous New Orleans ‘Airport Quarter’. My job does take me to the most glamorous of locations. ;-) Fortunately I’ve been to The Crescent City many times, and I did at least manage to get my beignets from the airport. Yummy. J Having spent some time in the ‘New Orleans Airport Quarter’, here’s a trivia question for you: New Orleans airport initials are MSY… what does that stands for and why? Answer in tomorrow’s entry! J

In my absence I see Mother Nature snuck in another storm, Philippe. And I use ‘storm’ in the lightest sense of the word. But first, wherefore art thou Ophelia?

TS Ophelia
Officially she is at 18.3N, 58.4W, moving WNW at 12 mph. Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 1007mb. She has been hovering on the edge of barely being a Tropical Storm over the past couple of days (range: 39-73mph) and is still looking very ragged. It is the wind shear that has really kept her discombobulated. The circulation is very weak, and is confined to the lowest levels of the troposphere. Because she is so disorganized I cannot identify a center at all, so I’ll just go along with the NHC on the ‘center location’ and her movement direction/speed. She has a small amount of convection, mostly on the eastern side of the ‘center’ because of the wind shear. Personally, given the very weak circulation and the weak convection, I think this is a Tropical Depression and not a Tropical Storm. There is still strong wind shear ahead of her, so I don’t know how much longer she’ll hold on to her Tropical Storm status.

TS Philippe
This far east Atlantic Blob became a Tropical Depression earlier today, and was rapidly promoted to a very weak Tropical Storm in the 5pm advisory. Officially he is at 11.6N, 28.8W, moving WNW at 13mph. Wind speeds are estimated to be 40mph, central pressure 1006mb. The forecast keeps him out in the Atlantic and has him turning into a cat 1 hurricane (range: 74-95mph) by Monday afternoon. The circulation is stronger in Philippe than in Ophelia, with decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. His convection is not very well organized yet, but wind shear is low so I think this will improve over the next day. However, I am not sure he will reach hurricane strength if he stay on the forecast track because the waters are a little on the cool side.

Not much more to say about either of these storms for now. There’s another blobette that the NHC are watching, just off the east coast of Florida/Bahamas region. This is more like a front than a tropical system though, and both the convection and the vorticity (circulation) are pretty weak. I’ll mention it if it looks like it’s going to become something.

It’s Autumn. Hurray! J
That’s all for today.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Ophelia: September 21, Update A

2011-09-21T22:43:00.005-04:00

I knew you were an erudite bunch, although I’m not sure everyone got all the Shakespeare references that I put in there – heck, I don’t even know if I got them all! ;-) But more on this later. I have one or two things to say about the storm today.

For some inexplicable reason the NHC decided to say in the 11am advisory that: “...OPHELIA BECOMES STRONGER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...” , and they increased the wind speed this morning from 45mph (5am advisory) to 60mph (11am advisory). Oh, my bad, I forgot… they did give a “reason”. I’ll get to that in a moment. Her winds have stayed at 60mph all day, which means she’s a mid-to-strong sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is currently estimated to be 1000mb. Here is the IR satellite image from earlier today, taken just after I read she had winds of 60mph, and the second image is the IR image I posted from yesterday evening (check the date stamp at the bottom if you get them confused):

See any changes? Isn’t it funny how she looks like she got a little weaker overnight, not stronger? Would you like to know the reason why the NHC said she got stronger this morning? (you’ll love this, I did) From the NHC 11am Advisory: “ALTHOUGH OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A 1200 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP PBSY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT. SINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS CURRENTLY NOT SUGGESTIVE OF STRENGTHENING...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WAS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.”

And the English translation: we have said she’s stronger now because she looks weaker than yesterday, but we have a ship reading and a satellite (ASCAT) estimate that says the winds are stronger than we think they should be if she weakened from our guesstimate yesterday, so we were wrong yesterday.

I have more than one problem with this:
1. The logical reasoning.
2. They say she ‘becomes stronger’ as she moves across the Atlantic, when actually she weakened.
3.The belief in today’s observations, compared to yesterday’s – and a single ship reading is not enough to tip the scales.
4.The convoluted explanation.
5.They didn’t change yesterday’s winds, but if they were stronger than this morning as the message suggests, it means she was closer to being a hurricane than expected… she was no way near being that strong yesterday!

Moving on from this…. She is currently at about 13.5N, 45W, moving generally westward at 16mph. The high pressure to her north and west has been growing and now extends into the Caribbean. I think tomorrow she will slow down in speed because there appears to be high pressure in front of her (for her, that’s like climbing up a hill). She will continue to try and move westward until this high pressure erodes. The models are in good agreement that she’ll curve WNW and NW towards the northeastern Caribbean, possibly staying on the Atlantic side of the Virgin Islands. If she slows down in the next 24 hours, there is a possibility that this forecast track might shift southward. However the models have been rather good at the track with the last few storms, which is why I am not sure if the high pressure will stay in place. Tomorrow I’ll be looking at her forward speed.

Wind shear remains strong. Her center is to the southwest of the convection, and most of the convection is concentrated in the northeast quadrant of the storm.

Now forget about those silly storm thingies. That’s not really why you are here, is it? You want to know about how many Shakespeare quotes I think I put in yesterday’s estimate. J Jim and Gary, both from Florida, were the closest with 9 and 13 respectively. Gary said he had a margin of error of 3, so he might have the correct number. But overestimating the number in my mind is fantastic… it means my writing is indistinguishable from Shakespeare’s writings!! And that means I’m a genius writer, or we’ve just provided more evidence that any monkey can write like Shakespeare. ;-)

The Answers from yesterday:
1. Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears. From Julius Caesar. (No, he’s not asking for people to do a Van Gogh and literally lend him their ears!)
2. …when last we met… From er… that well-known Shakespearean piece that I remember well, called Star Wars. Umm, that was a deliberate red herring, yeah, deliberate, that’s right…. Besides it’s so easy to confuse Darth Vadar with Romeo these days, isn’t it?
3. …glass of fashion… From Hamlet (the glass of fashion means a mirror of comportment or mirror of form… not to be confused with Harry Potter’s Mirror of Eirised ;-))
4. Tempest From The Tempest ( ok, this was more of a title than a quote)
5. …what’s in a name?... from Romeo and Juliet (the famous bit that follows is: That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet)
6. ...to be or not to be… From Hamlet (possibly the most famous line of them all!)
7. …more things in heaven and earth. From Hamlet.
8. …let every eye negotiate for itself. From Much Ado About Nothing.
9. …all that glisters is not gold… From The Merchant of Venice (sometimes contorted to all the glistens is not gold – I think)
10. … go thou with her to the west… From The Two Gentlemen of Verona
11. More tomorrow, tomorrow and tomorrow. From Macbeth (that Scottish play ;-))
12. Good night, good night! Parting is such sweet sorrow, That I shall say good night till it be morrow. From Romeo and Juliet.

Goodness, what a long entry. Ophelia has probably weakened further and is now a hurricane since I started writing!

Traveling again tomorrow, but I’ll check in when I can.
I shall say good night till it be morrow! J
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Ophelia: September 20, Update A

2011-09-21T00:24:00.004-04:00

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears. Has it only been two days when last we met? Ophelia has achieved the glass of fashion in the storm world, and is now a fully-fledged little Tempest. But what’s in a name? And what the heck have I just been babbling about? ;-) … Well, with our newly formed Tropical Storm Ophelia out there, how many Shakespeare quotes can you find in here (answers tomorrow… assuming I can find them all ;-))?

This poor little Atlantic blobette has been struggling for the past few days. I expect she was wondering whether to be or not to be (oooh… a pun AND a quote! Sometimes I amaze myself… ;-) ). However, today there are more things in heaven and earth: her circulation improved during the day, and her convection is slowly slowly improving. Ophelia has had some lower tropospheric rotation for the past couple of days, but the convection just wasn’t coming together. This morning the clouds were rather disjoint and although the convection is a bit stronger now, it is still not very cohesive, but I say let every eye negotiate for itself. The first satellite IR image I saved this morning, and the other one just now – 12.5 hours later:

Officially she’s at 12.2N, 40.1W, moving W at 9mph. But all that glisters is not gold and with wind speeds of 40mph, she’s barely a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 1006mb.

I think she’s a little farther west than the official location, but for now I agree with the NHC and reiterate, go thou with her to the west, with a gradual turn to the NW. Her center of circulation is on the west side of the convection and she is weak because she’s experiencing wind shear from the west, which looks like it will continue for now at least. At the moment I agree with the NHC assessment of intensity as well and don’t think she will get to hurricane strength – wind shear looks like it will remain quite chipper.

More tomorrow, tomorrow and tomorrow.
Good night, good night! Parting is such sweet sorrow,
That I shall say good night till it be morrow.
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wrap-Up on H. Maria: September 18, Update A

2011-09-18T11:10:00.003-04:00

Hurricane Maria had long gone by the time I got back to a computer on Friday evening, so instead of wrapping things up, I’ve been dawdling, pottering, sleeping, dawdling some more, eating, drinking, and pottering again. Time for some final thoughts (including a science AND forecasting alert – ooh… two for the price of one!! ;-)), then I can get back to my pottering and dawdling and another cup of tea (it’s a sleepy Sunday morning… there’s time for TWO cups of tea!).

Maria was not a hurricane as she went by Newfoundland but, in my humble opinion she was an extratropical storm (with tropical storm force winds). The Canadian forecast (from Environment Canada – the Canadian weather service) expected maximum winds of around 43mph in the St. John’s region of Newfoundland, which would mean her winds were equal to a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), not a hurricane. (Oh by the way, in case you were wondering, more than three people do actually live north of Maine. Look on googlemaps… there are cities and towns and everything up there! ;-))

The last NHC advisory was at 5pm AST (Atlantic Standard Time, which is the time zone for that part of Canada) on Friday, when they had her as a post-tropical storm, with winds of 70mph, central pressure of 982mb, heading NE at 58mph, and that was their last advisory.

Tom from St. Thomas raised a very good point after my previous update. He asked that if the winds were 80mph, and she was moving forward at 43mph, does this mean that the winds in some parts of the storm were approaching 123mph?

<Science AND Forecasting Alert!> The maximum winds were 80mph, not 123mph, because the NHC already allow for the forward motion in their 80mph wind estimate. If Maria had been stationary, her winds would be around 37mph (not even a Tropical Storm!). But because she was moving forward at 43mph, that was added and the highest winds are what we get as the storm’s winds in the advisories.

These winds are not evenly distributed around the storm. In the Northern Hemisphere, winds move around the storm center in an anti-clockwise manner. So generally, the right side of the storm has stronger winds than the left side of the storm because those winds are in the same direction as the movement of the storm. Here is a simple picture to show this (thanks to the NOAA/NHC website for the graphic, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html, which addresses this question):

<End of Science AND Forecasting Alert!>

There are currently three yellow blobs on the NHC map… they aren’t very well formed, so I’ll let them cook for another day or two before writing more. See yas later!
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Maria: September 15, Update A

2011-09-16T00:09:00.002-04:00

Really? A hurricane? And we were all getting along so nicely. Sigh. For some reason, the NHC have decided that Maria is now a Hurricane. I would have to politely disagree.

Officially she is at 38.5N, 63.5W, and is moving NE at 43 mph (!!)!!(!!)!! (yes, even my parenthetical exclamation marks have exclamation marks! (<--- one that escaped the herd). Winds are 80mph, central pressure 984mb. 80mph winds makes her fall into that hurricane cat 1 range of 74-95mph. A forward movement of 43mph makes her most definitely a storm that has merged with a low pressure front and is therefore not a hurricane!! (<--- I can’t help it!).

Here is the Infra-red satellite image of Maria at 02:45 UTC… around 9:45pm EST. The official numbers I mention above are in the 11pm EST.

That does not even look like a hurricane!!(!!).

They upgraded her at the 5pm advisory.. when she was at 35.2N, 65.6W. Outside of the tropics and just over 200 miles NNW of Bermuda. Water temperatures in this area are 26-27 deg C, so just about enough to sustain a Tropical Storm, not really to turn one into a hurricane.

Circulation continues to remain strong in the lower troposphere, but the upper tropospheric circulation was a little stronger when she was farther south, near Bermuda. So that has weakened.

Wind shear is also pretty strong… which is why she’s all over the map. She is feeling a wind shear of 30-70 knots at the moment – so the shear is in some parts as strong as the winds within the storm. Hmm. Coincidence? Hmm. Wind shear will continue to remain strong.

I understand that Newfoundland will get some windy weather, with a bit of rain. But really, a hurricane?

Meanwhile, back on Bermuda… they got some stormy weather this afternoon from Tropical Storm Maria, as expected. From Steve at 1pm EST: “ A rather large limb on tree in front of our labs snapped. The bamboo outside my lab is swirling wildly and it's starting to get darker!” That seems to be the worst of it that I heard about … well, other than he couldn’t get his afternoon tea from the other building because it was raining horizontally, and it would have diluted the tea (we can’t be having that!).

That’s it from me from sunny Jacksonville (well, I’m sure it would be sunny if it wasn’t the middle of the night). (Huh. A Hurricane. Huh. Mumble grumble).

Night night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Maria: September 14, Update A

2011-09-14T21:43:00.002-04:00

If you liked the 360 deg photo thingy of Paris yesterday, Dan from Florida sent me some more. Here’s one from the flight deck of the Space Shuttle Discovery! http://360vr.com/2011/06/22-discovery-flight-deck-opf_6236/index.html. You can click the mouse and scroll up and down too. Nice stuff! Thanks Dan.

Ok, onto the matter at hand. The high pressure shifted as expected and she’s chugging along at a lovely pace now.

Tropical Storm Maria is officially centered at 27.2N, 68.9W, heading NNE at 17mph. Winds are 65mph (central pressure is 999mb), making her a strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).

They readjusted her center to the west early this morning, after which she carried on moving NNW, before heading N, and now she’s on that NNE track. She’ll zip by Bermuda tomorrow afternoon. She is still a little messy, and it is tricky to see a clear center so I will go with the NHC and hurricane hunter plane center. I agree with the track forecast – she will carry on NNE, then NE continuing around that high.

The convection has improved a smidgen and circulation is rather strong in the lower half of the troposphere, with some circulation in the upper troposphere. However, wind shear will continue to increase so I don’t think she will be more than a very strong Tropical Storm (at the most she may be a very weak cat 1 storm) – this is also in agreement with the NHC, who do not have her getting to hurricane strength, although they have issued a hurricane watch for Bermuda. I think her center will pass west of the island, but as most of the convection is on the east side of the storm (because of wind shear), that’s where the thundery weather is lurking and so you might get some rather stormy conditions even if she’s not actually a hurricane.

In addition to Tropical Storm Maria, there’s another squiggly blob that just came off Africa. Alas, there’s a hiccup on the website so I can’t see what the convection is for this one but the circulation is very weak at the moment. My, what a busy season this is… http://xkcd.com/944/ (hee hee, thanks to Heather from Florida for sending this link J).

Another busy day tomorrow, with travel and whatnot... I’ll check in as soon as I can. Good luck on Bermuda! Be safe.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Maria: September 13, Update A

2011-09-13T23:17:00.002-04:00

Only one storm? It’s been a while since we’ve only had one to chit-chat about… I’m feeling a bit off-balance! Or maybe that’s from the (one) glass of wine I’ve already had this evening? ;-)

Maria is still loitering just north of the Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic area and hasn’t made much of a move since yesterday.

Officially she is at 23.5N, 68.2E, moving N at 9mph. Winds are still 50mph (a weak-to-mid intensity storm, TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure is 1003mb.

I kinda sorta agree with the official information. She is not very well organized, so it is difficult for me to figure out where her center is, and therefore also which direction she is moving in – it looks like the NHC are also ‘guestimating’ her center: “THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.” I think it’s very possible that her center is a little south of this location. Regardless, it looks like the high pressure that has been holding her in place is now shifting. Soon she will really be able to move. It looks like she’ll move to the NW first, then clockwise around the high pressure, to the North and Northeast. Bermuda… got your rain gear out?

The intensity seems reasonable at the moment and I am not sure if it will really increase too much for now. Convection is not very strong, and although the circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere there is still some wind shear that is now the main reason why the intensity has not increased. It looks like wind shear will continue to remain strong(ish) for now.

Our fabulous reporter from the field, Tom in St. Thomas, said (at ~7am EST this morning): “from the looks of the sat. pics we get a weeks rest from all of these tropical systems forming….. had lots of rain here but nothing flooding us out yet...Puerto Rico coping with the rain today....we can use the rest as yesterday we had 8 hours of no electricity due to some storm issue at the plant.”

Oh dear, 8 hours with no electricity… I hope you had some yummy ice cream to eat! ;-)

Looks like PR is out of the rain, but the Dominican Republic is getting a bit now.

I’ll pop back tomorrow with more about this flibberty-gibbet of a storm.
Adieu,
J.

p.s. Here’s a very cool photo thingy (for want of a better description), that I got from Tim in Florida. For all you world travelers (past, present and future), it’s a 360 panoramic view of the Sunset and the Eiffel Tower in Paris: http://360.io/EZyhtz. Put your mouse over the photo, hold and drag in the direction you want to see. (Of course I like the clouds ;-)).

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Maria and the last bits of Katia and Nate: September 12, Update A

2011-09-12T22:02:00.002-04:00

Did you know that statistically this week is the peak of the hurricane season? Here is a figure of the number of hurricanes and tropical storms from NOAA and when they occur throughout the season:

Hurray! We have climbed the mountain… and speaking of climbing mountains (we’re back to The Sound of Music), the only real storm today is Tropical Storm Maria. (hope you liked that segue, I worked hard on that one J).

First, The Remains of Katia. She reached the British Isles today, and they had gusts up to (at least) 82mph – she mostly went over Scotland. I hear it was a ‘bit breezy’ really. This is my last entry on Katia.

Second, The Remains of Nate. He became a Tropical Depression yesterday, soon after making landfall. Not much left of him now. This is my last entry on Nate.

And that leaves Maria. What shall we do with Maria? J She has been hanging out just north of Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic for most of the day today. She’s currently at around 21N, 67.5W, drifting NW at a whopping 2mph (goodness me, I can walk up and down big hills faster than that!), so she’s essentially stationary. Actually, I think she’s moving a little faster than that, but not much. This is because she is surrounded by high pressure. I don’t see her making a run for it until tomorrow sometimes, and even then I’m not sure. I’ll have to look at the latest pressure fields tomorrow. Her winds have decreased to 50mph because of the wind shear and dry air we saw in the satellite image yesterday. This makes her a weak-to-mid level Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph – I expect you all know this as well by now! J). Central pressure is 1006mb. She has a lot of convection and thundery weather, all to the east and south of her center (result of wind shear). It looks like she is generating showers over the VIs, PR, and the Dominican Republic. I hope she does manage to get moving soon, because I don’t know if they want any more rain down there, and Haiti could do without a drenching.

More tomorrow!
Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Katia, Tropical Storms Maria and Nate: September 11, Update A

2011-09-11T10:40:00.002-04:00

First, I couldn’t let this day go without mentioning the topical events a decade ago that changes the world we knew. I remember visiting the WTC on my first trip to the US (and many times after that) and marveling at the little ant-cars zipping around on the streets below. I remember where I was when it happened, as I’m sure everyone does. I remember the surreal and eerie silence in the days that followed, including in the skies. I know some of you lost family and friends in those events, and I know many more were affected in some manner or another. My thoughts are with you on this day.

But now, back to the topical tropics of today and the lack of silence in the skies

Extratropical Storm Katia
She’s still on course for the northern British Isles tomorrow. Warnings to be prepared for windy and wet weather have been issued. I don’t see too much rain left in Katia, but she’ll definitely be a windy. Don’t bother with your umbrellas.

Tropical Storm Maria
Maria’s convection increased a lot yesterday, and she’s beginning to look like she has a better defined center to the northeast of the VIs. Most of the convection is out in the Atlantic too. As Tom on St. Thomas said in an email (at 3-something am!), they will get away with it lightly on the VIs.

She’s officially at 19N, 63.7W heading NW at 13mph. I agree with the forecast track, which keeps her away from the US. However, it might get a bit wet and windy on Bermuda (and the surrounding seas might be a tad on the choppy side… anyone going on a cruise out there perchance?).

Winds are currently 60mph, so she’s a mid-intensity Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). I agree with the NHC that she will remain a Tropical Storm for the next day at least. Although her circulation is good in the lower troposphere and water temperatures are 29-30 deg C (with water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper ~75m of the water column), wind shear is quite strong and blowing from the southwest. This is very clear in the satellite image of water vapor, which shows a better defined edge on the west side and a stream of clouds on the north and east side – she’s a bit lop-sided:

You can also see dry air on her west side (it’s the brown section of the Water Vapor image). This will also inhibit her development.

Tropical Storm Nate
He is just about making landfall between Veracruz and Tuxpan, Mexico (about 10am EST), as you can see in the visible satellite image:

His center at around 20.2N, 96.7W and he’s moving generally westward at 10mph. Winds are officially 45mph (central pressure 1005mb), so he is a very weak Tropical Storm. There is hardly any rainfall in this system. I expect he’ll be a Tropical Depression within a few hours of landfall (by tonight).

Cynthia from Maryland asked why they don’t show a 5-day forecast cone on the 5-day forecast plot. This is because they only show the forecast cone until the point when the storm is forecast to dissipate. If it is dissipating within 5 days (or 3 days), they will show the cones on those plots, but for fewer days.

Later gators! (and all other college football teams. Sigh. ;-))
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Katia, Tropical Storms Maria and Nate: September 10, Update A

2011-09-10T12:15:00.002-04:00

Not much time to dilly dally at the moment!

Extratropical Storm Katia (or Post-Tropical if you go with the relatively new NHC name)
She is now at around 44.7N, 47.7N heading ENE at a very very rapid 53mph! This speed alone suggests she is extratropical. She’s been like this since yesterday, but is now officially an ex-Hurricane, heading towards the British Isles.

Winds are officially 80mph, central pressure is 954mb. I think she’s a bit weaker, but will still bring wind (gale force in some parts) and rain. The NHC have issued their last advisory on Katia, but say that those in the UK and northern Europe should get info from the UK Met Office (yay!) at www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather. Here’s their severe weather warning page: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html.

I’ll keep following her for now… someone in the UK can send me a weather report (“raining, blustery, raining, tea break, windy, windy, raining, tea break, raining, windy, raining, tea break, windy…”) . Fun weather across the pond this week!

Terrance sent me this photo of Katia’s clouds at sunset (taken by Roydon) when she was visiting Bermuda.

Pretty sky! (I like clouds J). Thanks Terrance (and Roydon)!

Tropical Storm Maria
She’s really not a Tropical Storm but rather a low pressure depression. However the NHC are keeping her as such for now (just in case she changes her mind). They have discontinued all warnings. There’s no real circulation in this system, and although the winds are officially 40mph (central pressure 1007mb), that’s just to keep her at the TS classification (TS range: 39-73mph). They cannot locate a center, but are guessing it to be at 17.3N, 61.5N, with a similar guess regarding her direction and movement – NW at 15mph.

What I see is some circulation in the lower troposphere, right over the Windward Isles (a bit south of the official center), however, I cannot see an exact center either, and have not been able to for a few days. So I would agree with keeping her as a very weak Tropical Storm. She has room to move NW now because the high pressure that was keeping her on a westward track has eroded. There is a hefty band of convection though, because water temperatures are warm (a lovely 29-30 deg C). You can see this in the IR satellite image:

Tom on St. Thomas wrote yesterday that he’s expecting a “good bit of rain”. Yes indeed!

Tropical Storm Nate
They have downgraded their estimate on his intensity and no longer are forecasting a hurricane, quite rightly so. It looks like it wasn’t only the closeness to land that was suppressing him, but also dry air. He’s a weak TS, and official winds are 50mph, central pressure 1000mb. He doesn’t have a lot of convection, more cloudy with bits of rain (‘bits of rain’ = very precise scientific measurement ;-)), so I agree with keeping him as a weak Tropical Storm. As far as the vorticity (circulation) goes, he has as much as Maria, but he is a bit better organized so it’s easier to see the center, which is at around 20N, 94.2W (moving W at 6mph)... right towards a Mexico landfall tomorrow.

And that’s all I have time for at the moment… I have important things to do. Like finishing eating my yummy homemade British pancakes (not to be confused with American pancakes or French crepes) and British TV to watch! J More later though.

Chow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storms Maria and Nate: September 8, Update A

2011-09-08T22:58:00.002-04:00

Today is a big day. It is the 45^th anniversary of Star Trek. The <whisper>third<whisper> best sci-fi tv show ever. (Shhhh… I have to whisper because I suspect there are one or two Star Trek fans reading this…don’t tell them, but the top two are Blake’s 7 and Dr. Who ;-)). Happy Birthday Star Trek!

It is also a big day because there are three storms out there now. Nate has grown up since yesterday. He broke away from his low pressure front home and is now standing on his own two storm feet. He’s not yet learned to walk on them though, so he’s still tottering around over the Bay of Campeche. More on Baby Nate later.

Hurricane Katia
She’s pretty well behaving as expected. All day today she’s been a cat 1 (range: 74-95mph) and is following the forecast track. She’s currently at about 36.3N, 68.8W moving NE at a rapid speed 21mph. Officially wind speeds are currently 85mph (mid-level storm), central pressure is 973mb. There is really not a lot of convection in this system so I expect she’s a weak cat 1 by now, but I’ll go with the NHC on this one.

On Bermuda, Steve says: “It’s windy but not so much to raise an eyelid. We have cloudy skies, low humidity and mid 20dC. Sparkling weather!”

Time for another round of golf to celebrate? ;-)

There’s not much more to say about Katia for today. She’ll move NNE then NE, towards the UK. She’ll remain a cat 1 for now.

Tropical Storm Maria
Like the song says, Maria is a Williow the Wisp. She weakened earlier today and now officially has winds of 40mph, central pressure 1005mb. Winds that low suggest she is barely a Tropical Storm. She also continued westward rather than take that WNW/NW turn. She’s at 13.2 N, 53.6W moving rapidly W at 21mph.

The forecast track still has her making a WNW turn, but it has shifted south so now she’ll enter the Caribbean and pass south of the VIs on Saturday. From what I am seeing that high pressure to her north is still holding steady which suggests to me that she’ll carry on a more westward track tomorrow as well.

She is really a messy little storm! I can’t see her center of circulation and will go with the NHC on this. Convection has increased a bit because she is moving over warm waters, but the circulation is weak in the middle levels of the troposphere and there will continue to be some wind shear. It’s unlikely that she will get much stronger before she gets to the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Nate
As I mentioned earlier, he grew up into a proper Tropical Storm today and I can talk about him now. Phew! ;-)

They sent a plane in today to get his measurements and officially he’s at 19.7N, 92.2W, and is stationary. Wind speeds are officially at 70mph, central pressure is 994mb. The forecast models still have him going all over the place.

The reason he is stationary is because he is surrounded by high pressure. You can imagine him being stuck in a well and until the walls are broken he won’t be going anywhere. Being stationary makes the forecast track for any storm even more difficult than usual, which is why the models can’t agree at the moment. There are a couple of things that are confusing the track forecast for Nate:
1. He is stationary. The longer he remains in one place, the more the surrounding pressure fields have a chance to adjust around him, so when he does get going things might be different.
2. He is a messy storm. I can’t see where the center is actually, so I will have to go with the NHC and the plane fix, but I am not 100% convinced that his center is at that location. I think he is a bit farther south, and may already be interacting with Mexico.

His convection has decreased a lot in the past few hours – you can see this in the latest IR satellite image:

His vorticity (circulation) has also deteriorated. This suggests he is struggling. But wind shear is very weak and water temperatures are warm, so I think it must be interaction with land that has caused him to deteriorate. I don’t think the winds are as strong as 70mph, and I would classify him as a weak-to-mid level Tropical Storm.

Now for something completely different…
Hey new readers! Welcome. I know a bunch of new people started reading this recently. First, I’m sorry and are you sure? ;-) Second, I’ve been explaining all sorts of fascinating jargon and wonderful sciencey stuff throughout the season so if I use a word that is new to you, you have two choices… you can either scroll through the ~15 billion updates I’ve had to write this season and see if you can find the jargon explanation… or you can send me a question asking for clarification. I can’t promise that you’ll go away any more enlightened, but there’s no harm in trying, right? ;-)

That’s it from me in Savannah. I’ve been here a few times, and it is still a charming city to visit. Clay from Georgia sent me this delightful description: “Savannah is a charming old dowager, like the old widow who lives alone in the weathered mansion, probably haunted, but lovely.” J

Tally-ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Katia and Tropical Storms Maria and Nate: September 7, Update A

2011-09-07T23:14:00.003-04:00

<warning: heavy sarcasm advisory> Today we shall all play ‘How Not To Be Seen’ (a la Monty Python). In these satellite images (both visible and infrared) from this evening, there are THREE Tropical Storms/Hurricanes:

Can you spot them all? In the middle of the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Maria, near Bermuda is Hurricane Katia. And yes, for those of you with a sharp eye (or those of you who have seen the latest hurricane map), in the Gulf is Tropical Storm Nate… who is cunningly disguised as a low pressure FRONT. And how do we know this is what he is disguised as? Because there are clouds extending in a linear manner from Central America to Florida. <end of heavy sarcasm advisory>

<mutter grumble mutter mutter>

Hurricane Katia
She is currently officially at 30.8N, 70.0W, heading NNW at 13mph. Winds are 80mph, central pressure is 982mb.

At least they downgraded her earlier today to a mid-level category 1 storm (range: 74-95mph), so I think they finally have the right intensity. She is making that curve towards the North as expected. There is still a lot of dry air on her western side, which continues to inhibit development. But as you can see from the satellite images, Bermuda is on the east side (you might need to get your magnifying glasses out to find the island). It is unlikely that she will get too much stronger than this, given that she is moving north over cooler waters (although wind shear is still looking a little light), but Bermuda will get something other than their clear sunny skies.

Current conditions on Bermuda are Cloudy and Breezy… umm… weren’t they two of the dwarves?

Earlier today I heard from Steve on Bermuda. We had a serious discussion of the deteriorating weather conditions on the island:
S: “it's a bit bloody breezy now… Reckon 50/50 as to whether (pun intended) the BA flight will leave tomorrow night.”
J: “Haha... nice pun. :-) It's going to get a bit breezier... Are you all set for the weather?”
S: “yes all set for the weather. That's why we moved tomorrow evening's golf game and had it last evening. I'm no fool!”
J: “I expect you'll be having a BBQ tomorrow evening instead?”
S: “are you kidding! We have the hot air balloon already to go. We're taking parachutes just in case though.”
J: “That's terribly prudent of you.”
S: “well we're not so silly as to through caution to the wind.”

If anyone would like a Hot Air Balloon ride over Bermuda tomorrow, please contact Steve. ;-) I’m hoping for more updates from Bermuda tomorrow.

I expect her to continue making that forecast turn to the north, and remaining a cat 1 storm as she skirts around Bermuda. Interestingly, the forecast is for her to be an Extratropical Storm as she get to the UK on Monday afternoon. Given that she is a mid-level cat 1 now, there is a good possibility that she’ll be weaker than that. It may be a bit breezy in Scotland… but they won’t notice the difference up there anyway.

Tropical Storm Maria

From The Sound of Music (I did warn you all yesterday):
“How do you solve a problem like Maria?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means Maria?
A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!”

As expected, TD 14 turned into TS Maria. Currently she is at 13.2N, 44.2W, zooming along generally westward at 23 mph. Winds are 50mph, making her a weak-to-mid level Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1002mb.

She is too disorganized for me to be able to see where her center of circulation is, but it looks like it is north of the official location. The convection is trying to sort itself out, but for now it is not very strong because of wind shear in this area. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. I would say she is a weak level Tropical Storm for now. There is no lower level convergence or upper level divergence to speak of, and the wind shear looks like it will get stronger, so I think she might weaken a bit further.

The forecast is for her to continue westward and then curve WNW and NW, through the northeastern Caribbean islands, and up towards the eastern seaboard. I can see her continuing westward for now because at the moment there is an area of high pressure that extends into the Caribbean. Until that erodes, I think she’ll carry on westward. However the track models have been pretty good with Irene and now Katia (all the girl name storms ;-)), and they are taking this one to the NW – anywhere from the eastern US to Bermuda. It wouldn’t hurt to keep an eye on this one, but I don’t think she’ll be very strong by the time she gets to the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Nate
<cough><mutter><mumble><cough>

I can’t believe they named this! There is some weak vorticity (circulation) in the lower troposphere which is connected to vorticity across the Gulf. This corresponds to the convection you saw in the satellite images. There is no upper level divergence and very little lower level convergence, so this doesn’t have a good tropical storm structure at all. Could it be that this is a front, not a tropical storm?

Even the NHC know this:

“… OVERALL THE SYSTEM RETAINS A SOMEWHAT BAROCLINIC APPEARANCE DUE TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A FRONTAL ZONE”

They have him as almost stationary over the Bay of Campeche, and forecast him to become a hurricane by Friday, with landfall in Mexico (on the western side of the Bay) on Monday evening. He is officially at 20.4N, 92.5W, moving E at 2mph. Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 1003mb. Officially he is barely a Tropical Storm. According to the NHC, their two satellite estimates of intensity have winds below Tropical Storm strength, but A SINGLE ship reported winds in ONE location that were a little stronger, so they are taking that as their basis! WHAT! A SINGLE Instrument! Really?!? (And you know that ships report stronger winds in fronts too by the way, because there are areas of windy weather in low pressure fronts too). I’m going to walk away from Nate for now and revisit him tomorrow. Maybe he’ll be something that walks and talks like a grown up Tropical Storm by then.

Speaking of tomorrow, I’m traveling again. Back to Georgia… to the delightful city of Savannah this time (did you know that life is like a box of chocolates there? Sweet, but melted and gooey in the heat ;-)). I’ll check in when I can!

Good luck on Bermuda.
Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Katia and Tropical Depression 14: September 6, Update A

2011-09-06T22:17:00.002-04:00

In watching Hurricane Katia today and comparing her to the official updates, I am reminded of the incomparable movie, The Princess Bride:
“Vizzini: HE DIDN'T FALL? INCONCEIVABLE.
Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

The question is, am I Vizzini or Inigo! ;-)

I think the official intensity for Katia has been a tad bit off since yesterday... Inconceivable, huh?

Hurricane Katia
Officially she is at 27.8N, 66.9W heading NW at 10mph. She is now back to being a strong cat 2 storm (range: 96-110mph) with winds of 105mph, central pressure 963mb.

I agree with her location and her NW(ish) movement. She’s been heading in that direction all day. But while I was in transit back to Earth yesterday (hence the radio silence), I read that she went up to a cat 4 overnight, and was apparently a cat 3 for most of today. Here's a visible satellite image of her from this morning (about 12 hours ago):

I’m pretty impressed that as a cat 3 storm (as she was then) she did not have an eye! She still doesn’t. It looks like she is weakening and I think she’s a cat 1 storm now. Although she is trying to get stronger, dry air has crept in from the north so her convection has decreased and you can see she’s not very ‘circular’ in the IR satellite images:

Her low level convergence and upper level divergence are also not as well defined as they were earlier this morning, another indication that she is much weaker.

<an aside: satellite image note> The time stamp on the satellite images is on the bottom. For example, the visible image has “SEP 6 11 14:45 UTC”. UTC stands for “Universal Time, Coordinated” (and not the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga ;-)). It replaced Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) as the World standard for time in 1986. If you woke up one morning in 1986 and noticed something was different, it was probably either this or the end of shoulder-pads in women’s fashions. It is based on an atomic time rather than the rotation of the earth. In the US, Eastern Standard Time is 5 hours behind UTC… so in the visible satellite image, 14:45 corresponds to 9:45am EST. <end of aside>

She still has very good circulation throughout the troposphere, and water temperatures are a lovely 28-29 deg C. Warm enough to keep her going. But the waters warmer than 26 deg C only cover the upper 25 m of the water column, so I don’t expect her to intensify much because of anything the ocean is providing. That means that any changes in intensity will be because of atmospheric conditions. Wind shear is not too strong and it doesn’t look like it will get any stronger. If she can find some eye drops and overcome the dry air issue, she might intensify back to a cat 2. I don’t see any indicators that will make her much stronger than that though.

As you can see in the IR satellite image, she has a large girth. Her cloud field from one end to the other spans a few hundred miles. I do not have a good map of the pressure fields at the moment, but I would generally agree with the NHC forecast track which has her curving N and NE between Bermuda and the US. It might be a Bit Breezy on Bermuda in a couple of days.

Tropical Depression 14
I have been watching this one for a couple of days now. Until yesterday it’s bark was worse than its bite, with more rain than circulation. However, yesterday the circulation started to improve in the lower troposphere but the convection is now pretty wimpy. Once the convection picks up, I would consider this a Tropical Storm. (Next name clue: I hope you like The Sound of Music ;-)). It is officially centered at around 11.8N, 37W, moving WNW at 18mph. Winds are 35mph, central pressure estimated to be 1008mb. At the moment I see this one continuing on a more westward track towards the central Caribbean, but all the islands should be getting ready (including those to the north) because it is too soon to tell where on that chain it will end up in 3-4 days.

And now for something different. Kent from Florida asked about the etymology of ‘codswallop’. Alas, I did not come up with such a wonderful phrase but please feel free to quote me as much as you like ;-). Apparently no-one knows who did (if you know, send me a note!). The first written reference is from a 1959 UK TV show script, but they say that it was in existence before then. I grew up with it, so it’s par for course in my world. J There is some speculation about the origin, dating back to an English soft drink maker and beer in the 1870s… of course it’s related to drink! ;-) (ref: http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/codswallop.html).

Now back to my lovely cheese-drinking wine from Monks Gate, Oregon. Yum. Yum.
More fun and games tomorrow!
Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Katia and Tropical Depression Lee: September 4, Update A

2011-09-04T23:20:00.002-04:00

As soon as I saw the 11am advisory on Katia, I think the first words out of my mouth were “What a Load of Codswallop!” (said in capitals, followed by some pacing around the room and a bit more ranting).

Hurricane Katia

In the 5am advisory on Tropical Storm Katia, the NHC wrote: “KATIA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH” (winds of 70mph). The forecast was for winds to reach 100mph in 72 hours. 72 HOURS… that’s 3 DAYS later.

In the 11am advisory on Hurricane Katia: “KATIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE” (winds of 100mph). Umm… that’s 6 HOURS later. Is someone trying to tell me that she intensified in 6 hours with absolutely no warning or forecast capabilities? That is just so very sloppy.

I’m sorry, I don’t buy it. She wasn’t a Tropical Storm yesterday, she was a cat 1 hurricane. I think I said two days ago that, based on what I am seeing, she was a mid-level cat 1. I don’t think she “rapidly intensified” at all. I think she made a natural progression from a cat 1 to a cat 2 storm. I’m really flummoxed on why this seems to have been a ‘surprise’ for the NHC!!

That was this morning. You’ll be happy to know that since then I’ve recovered a bit and can carry on in a more normal manner <twitch twitch>…

Officially at the 11pm advisory: Hurricane Katia is at 23.4N, 61W moving NW at 13mph. Her winds are officially at 105mph, central pressure 965mb.

I agree with the name. I also agree with the location. I agree that she is moving in a NW direction. (I told you I had recovered ;-)).

At the moment I would place her as a strong cat 1 (range: 74-95mph) or weak cat 2 (range: 96-110mph) rather than a strong cat 2 storm at the moment for two reasons:
1.Although she has an eye, it is not very clear. This suggests that winds are around 90-100mph.
2.Convection is not as strong as it should be in a cat 2 storm. The IR satellite image only has a small area of red and none of the gray which indicates that really strong thunderstorm sort of weather:

She was stronger this morning, so I agreed with her being upgraded to a cat 2 at that time. Circulation is stronger than yesterday throughout the troposphere, so she is definitely in the upper cat 1/lower cat 2 range. I think she will get a bit stronger because wind shear is weak and water temperatures are lovely and warm with temperatures over 29 deg C. At the moment I do not have a good view of the direction she will take in a few days, but for now the forecast NW track seems very reasonable. <twitch>

Tropical Storm Lee
Officially TS Lee is at 31N, 91.4W heading ENE at 7mph. His winds are 35mph, central pressure 990mb.

I agree with the location. (Oh, ok, I agree with the name too ;-)).

Lee officially made proper landfall in the early hours of this morning in western LA. They say he is moving ENE, but it looks like he is moving NE. I’m glad to see that they have corrected his forecast track a little and moved it farther inland and have downgraded him to a Tropical Depression. I think the winds are a little weaker than the current forecast, but he’s still a TD. There is still some rain in this system, but not a lot. We had a bit of rain from Lee here today, but there was no need for an umbrella (because I’m a hardy tea-drinking lass from the British Isles ;-)). He really was a water event rather than a wind event, so there was some flooding along coastal LA. As with Irene, keep an eye on rivers and such for a few days.

This is my last entry on Lee.

Now it’s time to enjoy one more evening on this planet. Back to Earth tomorrow.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Katia and Lee: September 3, Update A

2011-09-03T22:20:00.002-04:00

Goodness me, I think we have a couple of hamsters in wheels for storms today. They are not doing anything in particular, just busily spinning away. Obviously they don’t realize it is a three-day weekend here and some of us have other things to do like painting our nails or eating cheese (hmmm… cheese...). ;-)

Tropical Storm Katia
Like some famous celebrities, TS Katia’s weight has fluctuated like a yo-yo over the past 2 days (according to the NHC). I’m sure next week she’ll be signing a contract with Jenny Craig to do a series of TV commercials. ;-)

She is now a strong Tropical Storm yet again (for the third time), with winds of 70mph and a central pressure of 993mb. In my opinion I think she has not really changed from being a Cat 1 (range: 74-95mph) storm because her circulation is still good throughout the troposphere, her convection looks pretty ferocious (infra-red satellite image below), and she has some decent bone structure. I assume the NHC are oscillating between 70mph (TS) and 75mph (cat 1) because they are bored? Anyway, they forecast that she’ll be back at hurricane strength tomorrow (for the third or fourth time – I’ve lost count)…. For a couple of minutes anyway. ;-)

She’s at around 20.4N, 57.3W moving WNW at 10mph. She is still being a little hindered by high pressure to her north, which is why she is still on a slightly more westward track than the forecast called for. She is also a little slower that yesterday, again because of the high pressure. She’s trying to move north, poor thing. The good news is that that high pressure has almost eroded and I think that tomorrow we’ll start to see her speed up a bit and move NW again.

Tropical Storm Lee
I think they might have had him in the wrong place yesterday, because by the time I looked in on him today (around 10am), he was already at the LA coastline (1.5 days ahead of the forecast) and northwest of the forecast center of cone I had posted yesterday. He is a bit messy, but it looks like he is currently somewhere around 29.8N, 93W, moving in a squiggly (technical term! ;-)) westwardish direction along the LA coast (officially NNW at 4mph). Actually I think he has already made the leap onto land, pretty much where I thought yesterday - on the western edge of that cone of uncertainty.

His winds are around 50mph, making him a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), central pressure 988mb. As expected, he has dumped a lot of rain over the northern Gulf coast, east of his center. However, both the circulation and the convection have decreased a lot now (which is why I think he might be over land already). The forecast has him as a Tropical Storm until Monday afternoon. I think this is unlikely. I can’t see him remaining as a TS until then, especially when he is a weak TS now.

I expect they will say that he has made landfall in the next advisory.

That’s it for today. Time for some wine (and cheese) and aliens! (Oh, today I went to talks by Martin Landau and Ernest Borgnine. Before you ask, yes, they are both still alive! ;-) They were both charming. It was a real delight.)

More adventures tomorrow!
Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Katia and Tropical Storm Lee: September 2, Update A

2011-09-02T20:21:00.002-04:00

I think some of you are wondering what planet I’m visiting at the moment… it’s called Georgia. ;-) It’s very entertaining and informative here, with a surprise around every corner. It’s tricky getting time to write here though, but I have a few moments, so on with the show….

Hurricane Katia
Officially Katia is at 18.4N, 53.5W moving NW at 12mph. She is still a weak cat 1 storm with winds of 75mph, central pressure 989mb.

She was due to make that NW turn last night, so she did continue on a more westward track than initially forecast. Although the NHC say she is moving NW, I think it’s still a little west of that (WNW), but there is a definite north component, which is great because she will miss the NE Caribbean islands. As expected, she has slowed down a bit because of that high pressure in front of her. It is still there, but the low pressure from the north is beginning to break through – we will know if it succeeded if she picks up speed again.

I know the NHC downgraded her to a Tropical Storm earlier, with winds of 70mph (so she remained a very strong TS: range 39-73mph). I think she was a hurricane the entire time because convection remained strong, and the circulation was very good at all levels of the troposphere. I think she is a mid-level cat 1 rather than a weak cat 1 (range: 74-95mph), but generally I agree with keeping her as a category 1 storm because although she has strong convection and good circulation, she is not very coherent (she’s been drinking or something! ;-)). I think she might strengthen a bit because it looks like the wind shear will weaken, the upper level circulation is already getting better, and the lower level convergence and upper level divergence is looking good.

At the moment she is no threat to land, so I’m not too worried about her strengthening. Just don’t go sailing in that area!

Tropical Storm Lee
The Gulf of Mexico Blob morphed into Tropical Storm Lee. He is currently at 27.8N, 91.6W, moving N at 3mph. Winds are 45mph, so he is a weak Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 1001mb. As expected, he is heading for the Louisiana/Texas area. I think he might be heading to the western side of the cone of uncertainty rather than the Mississippi delta side:

He is not very well organized so I can’t clearly see his center of circulation. It looks like it is more to the northwest than the NHC center (maybe closer to 28.2N, 92W), but I will go with their assessment of this for now. Because he is such a mess and his center is difficult to locate, I will also go with the NHC assessment of his speed – very slow! The forecast calls for landfall on Sunday morning.

Earlier today his convection was worse than his intensity suggests because he was interacting with the deep warm waters of the Loop Current in the Gulf. However, it looks like he is moving away and the convection is easing up a bit too… it still looks like you guys along the northern Gulf (from LA to FL) will get clouds and a bit more rain. Just keep your umbrellas handy!

That’s it from me for today. Time to get back to my fellow friends, countrymen, and aliens.
Pip-pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Katia and the Gulf of Mexico Blob: September 1, Update A

2011-09-01T09:33:00.002-04:00

Yesterday I had internet issues on this other planet I’m on, so I couldn’t write anything. That’s ok though… I’m sure you enjoyed a day off and actually did something productive instead of reading my rambling thoughts. J

Hurricane Katia
Katia’s circulation improved steadily yesterday and I would agree that she’s a fully-fledged member of the Hurricane club now. Her current position is 15.2N, 45.9W, and she continues to move West at 20mph. Winds are 75mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) so she’s barely a hurricane according to the NHC. Her central pressure is 987mb.

Although the forecast calls for a WNW and then NW turn by late tonight/tomorrow, the large scale pressure fields are not very clear (to me) and it looks like she seems to be surrounded by high pressure at the moment with very little room to move. If that is the case, today she might slow down and remain on a westwardish track. Maybe later today I will get a better idea of the steering. I can see why the forecast has her moving NW by tomorrow – there is an area of low pressure in the Atlantic that they think will break through the high pressure and move her out that way. It is not evident in the maps at the moment though, but we’ll know by tomorrow morning whether it happened or not.

As for her intensity, I agree with the NHC… a low-level cat 1 seems about right to me. The circulation is very strong in the lower troposphere, and it is now also good in the upper troposphere – a sure sign of a hurricane. There is also some upper level divergence (outflow) and lower level convergence (inflow). There is also some decently strong convection near the center (all that yummy thundery red stuff in the attached satellite image of the Atlantic – she’s the red blobby area to the east of the Caribbean), although the convection is a bit fragmented outside the center – this indicates a weak hurricane.
Wind shear has increased today and you can see that in this image. It almost looks like the clouds are being blown from the west side to the east. That’s because there is some strong wind shear from the west to the east, and it is stronger on her northern side compared to the southern side. It looks like the shear will get a bit stronger today, so I don’t think she will get much stronger for now.

Gulf of Mexico Blob
You know, sometimes it seems like Mother Nature knows when I’m not looking and tries to pull a fast one. Huh. So cheeky of her!

I see we have some interesting weather in the Gulf that popped up yesterday (the red blobby area in the Gulf of Mexico in the satellite image). This has some circulation in the lower troposphere, and you can see that is has some pretty nice convection too. I am not sure if this will become a tropical storm, but I would expect strong thunderstorms and lots of rain with this blob because it is over very warm water (over 30 deg C) and a part of it is also interacting with the Loop Current which is an area of very deep warm water in the Gulf. However, like Katia, I think this is being impacted by very strong wind shear from the northwest (30-40knots) because it looks like the convection is to the east/southeast side of whatever circulation there is - it’s not a very well formed system, so it is difficult to see the circulation center. I am thinking it is nearer the TX/LA/MS section of the Gulf than the western or eastern Gulf, but the worst impacts will be on the eastern side because of the strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. The reason I don’t think this will have a chance to get very strong is because it looks like wind shear will continue to be strong in the northern Gulf of Mexico. So this will be more water than wind.

Speaking of more water than wind, I see that the aftermath of Irene is still impacting the northern states with flooding rivers etc. What a mess! I hope power is back up for people soon, and I hope we don’t have any more overflowing banks or dams on Lakes etc.

I’ll try and write an update later today – hopefully the internet will be fully operational. Anyone want to hear about the aliens that I see walking the streets here? J

Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Katia: August 30, Update A

2011-08-30T20:19:00.001-04:00

I'm on another planet so not much time to dilly dally today either, alas.

Tropical Storm Katia is cooking nicely. Officially she has winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph), so she is a mid-size Tropical Storm, central pressure 997mb. SHe is at 12.7N, 35.4W, heading WNW at 20mph. Her track has shifted slightly southwards since yesterday, and I think it will continue in that vein for now and of course if this pans out, it means she will be closer to the VIs than initially forecast.

The NHC have her as a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. I am not 100% sure of this yet. Although she has good circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, I do not see any sign of circulation in the upper troposphere. Also, her lower level convergence (inflow) and upper level divergence (outflow) are not very well developed. Both of these indicate that she doesn't have a good structure (at the moment). However, wind shear is low and will remain low for at least a day if not longer. Also, she is in the tropics, so sea surface temperatures are warm. She certainly has the buffet she needs to put on a few pounds.

More later tomorrow.

Ciao for now!

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depressions Jose and 12: August 29, Update A

2011-08-29T20:29:00.002-04:00

"A distressingly busy day with little time for sloth or idleness" (Oscar Wilde)... fortunately we don't have much going on out there. It's all depression this, depression that.

Jose was downgraded to a Tropical Depression this morning and is just a cloud in the minds eye now. Somewhere way up there in the North Atlantic. The NHC issued their last advisory on him at 11am this morning, when he was at 39.5N, 63.1W, moving NNE at 29mph. Winds were 30mph, central pressure 1009mb.

The Atlantic Blobette is now Tropical Depression 12 (it was upgraded yesterday). It has remained as a TD all day today, and doesn't look like it's going anywhere fast. Convection is really super weak. It is currently at 10.2N, 29.4W, moving W at 14mph. Winds are 35mph, central pressure is 1008mb. They do forecast this to be a hurricane by Thursday afternoon. It is a bit far on the eastern side of the Atlantic for me to get a good reading on, but it looks like wind shear is a little strong so the convection is all to the west of the center of circulation. The circulation is much improved in the lower troposphere today, so once that convection gets itself sorted out, I expect this to be a Tropical Storm at least. The current forecast track takes it in a WNW and NW direction, so it is east of the VIs (by a few hundred miles) on Saturday afternoon. I think that it will carry on in a more westward direction for longer than the forecast tracks show, so it will be south of there.

That's it for today. I'll return when we have another TS on our hands.
Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Irene and Jose, and an Atlantic Blobette: August 28, Update A

2011-08-28T19:40:00.001-04:00

Oh Great Googliemooglies! Really? Another storm that is named as it is practically on top of land? Really? Well, we’ll get to that later. First, that other one…

Tropical Storm Irene
As expected, she was a Tropical Storm by the time she got to New York, and was mostly a water event rather than a wind event. I hear the levels in the Hudson River rose, so downtown Manhattan experienced a ~5ft rise in water levels (above the high tide they were expecting anyway) so a part of Manhattan got slightly submerged. Don’t worry, the NY Stock Exchange is ok…. I’m sure your stocks and shares will be worth just as much as they usually are.

Irene is currently visiting northern New England, and is about 60 miles south of Rutland, Vermont, around 43.5N, 72.5W. Winds are officially 50mph, so she’s a weak-to-mid-level Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), central pressure is 975mb (which is rather low for a storm with these winds!). She continues to move NNE at a whopping 26mph (an indication that she’s not a tropical storm really, but an extratropical storm now). Convection is greatly reduced, although she still has some circulation, so I expect places to the north will get a bit breezy but nothing too bad.

In my excitement about Tides Online yesterday, forgot to mention what the other graphs were on the water level figure in yesterday’s entry, although they cleverly use these things called words to label them so I’m pretty sure everyone figured it out. J But just in case you had your eyes closed, the remaining graphs showed the wind speed (and direction), the air pressure (it is quite cool to see the drop and then subsequent rise as the storm passes the sensor), and in the example I showed yesterday, air and water temperatures. Not all sites have all this yummy data, but the main reason I go to the Tides Online is to see the water levels.

Reports from in the field:

Chris in Maryland wrote at 5am (!!!): "Large sections of Silver Spring are without power (hopefully I will get this out and not lose power here). Sounds like that is the major issue. The power lines here are weak and they don't trim the trees, so every little gust knocks out power for a day or so.

At 05:00, winds are steady at 26 kts from the NNW and gusting to 39 kts. The main problem here (DC and north or west cities) will be downed power lines and residential flooding. It has been coming down steady for hours and all the local streams are flooding. No big news there. The forecast is for the rain to really start to let up in the next 3-5 hrs with basically no rain by noon, but still have winds of 25 kts. The morning buses are running but all the traffic lights in my area are out."

(Ed. Notes: 1kt = 1.15mph, I’ll let you all work out the conversion)

Shalini in Massachussettes wrote at 9am: "The weather is getting windy here..lots of rain, dark cloudy skis and hte wind is starting to pick up..not bad but definitely ugly weather."

Sameer in New York said at 11am: "Wow. No event mostly. Things seemed to have passed."

It is unfortunate that a number of deaths have been caused by Irene. I don’t know the details of all of them, but I know that at least one was from a tree that fell on a house. It’s very sad. L The major damage seems to be from falling trees, including the power lines that have been downed. I hear that about 3 million people are without power. I’m glad she wasn’t as bad as the earlier forecasts suggested – she has caused enough problems. I expect they will retire the name ‘Irene’ from the list.

There is not much more to say on Irene really, so this is my last post on her unless I get more Reports from in the field.

Tropical Storm Jose
I can’t believe they named this one! What another waste of a name this season. I actually know a Jose, and was lining up to have all sorts of fun with this named storm. What a nuisance! ;-)

Jose apparently has winds of 45mph, central pressure is 1007mb. He is at around 33.9N, 65.5W. Northwest of Bermuda, and moving NNE at some rapid speed.

Jose has some circulation in the lower troposphere, and not very much convection, as you can see (in case you are wondering, the convection associated with this storm is that little blob just west of Bermuda, not the larger blob to the south).

He was named about 12 hours ago, and according to the official forecast, he’ll be gone by tomorrow (because he is experiencing wind shear). He was almost on top of Bermuda when he was named and is zipping past on the western side… If you took a lovely 5 minute afternoon nap, the chances are you probably missed it anyway. Bermuda is under a Tropical Storm Warning and according to the NHC some parts of Bermuda are already experiencing Tropical Storm conditions. Maybe a couple of drops of rain or you might be adjusting your swing to allow for a slight breeze during your golf game. Let me know how you fare!

Atlantic Blobette
This one came off Africa not very long ago. They have currently given it a 70% chance of developing, but it looks a bit more wishy washy than that to me. It has some circulation in the lower troposphere and some convection, but neither is very well developed. I’ll be back with more if this one gets any better. Probably tomorrow the way things are going! Next name is Katia.

That is all I have for today. Maybe tomorrow I’ll have next to nothing to say. That’ll make a nice change for you, won’t it? ;-)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene and the last on TD10: August 27, Update A

2011-08-27T15:44:00.003-04:00

Hello my friends! I've been watching Irene as she moved on shore in North Carolina mid-morning. I'm glad they downgraded her winds further, so she was a mid-level cat 1 storm at that time with winds of 85mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph).

She is currently at 35.5N, 76.3W moving NNE at 13mph. Winds are still officially 85mph, with a central pressure of 950mb. The main thing as she weakens will be the water impact rather than the wind - rain (including river flooding from rain) and storm surge if you live along the coast. Just before she got to North Carolina she did pick up some moisture because she was over the Gulf Stream, so they have had a lot of rain methinks (in some parts). However, as she moves farther north, that should diminish a bit - and it looks like it is already diminishing. I think she's probably now barely a cat 1 storm, and if you look at the IR satellite image, you'll see that although she covers a large area, most of that is clouds and light rain. There is no deep convection (no red or grey).

By the time she gets to NY and New England, I expect her to be a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).

Speaking of storm surge, I don't think I've mentioned where you can monitor the water levels along the coast for yourselves yet. The National Ocean Service section of NOAA runs an excellent site called Tides Online (http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/). If you go there, currently you will see on the left side of the page a list of stations that they have identified for this storm. But my preference is to click on the link on the left that says 'State Maps'. That will bring up a map of the US (and the world). Click on the state of interest (umm... how about North Carolina as a random pick?). This will bring up a map of the state with red dots (and the locations) which indicate where they have water level stations. So if I click on Wrightsville Beach, you will see some graphs:

The top graph (water levels) has three lines on it. The blue line is the predicted water level, which includes the daily tidal variations. The red line is the actual observed water level. The green line is the difference, and will show what the actual surge component of the water level will be. So for Wrightsville, we see that storm surge peaked at 3-4ft, whereas if you go to Duck, NC, you can see it looks like it surged at about 2ft. If we look at Maryland, it looks like the water is about 0.5ft above normal in the Annapolis/Baltimore region, and moving farther north, in Montauk, Long Island, NY, it looks like at the moment the water is also just about 0.5ft higher than normal and rising. You can monitor the water levels at your leisure.

From in the field, Jennifer in North Carolina wrote at around 12.30pm today:
"So Irene is like a bad house guest. She just doesn't know when to leave! The eye is well north of Wilmington, but the winds are still gusting up to 50+ MPH. We've has TS winds since around 10 PM last night. The power has flickered, but the longest I was without power has been about 5 minutes. The houses built along the coast are faring much worse.

Jay's family lives in Cedar Island, NC. The eye of the storm passed directly over Cedar Island around 10 AM this morning. Jay's dad didn't leave town for the storm. Jay spoke to him around 8 AM and water was starting to come into his house. We haven't heard anything since that time. We are going to try to get up there tomorrow (Sunday). We can't get up any earlier than that because: 1) roads are flooded and 2) they still have hurricane strenght winds which won't deminish to TS winds until late this evening.

All in all everything is ok at my house. Lots of limbs down in the yard and lots of standing water but that's about it."

I hope everyone is ok!

As for wimpy Tropical Depression 10, although it is hanging out in the same general vicinity there is almost no convection. Unless it does something interesting, this is my last entry on this system.

I'll be back tomorrow with more shinanigans from Irene. Everyone stay safe!!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene and TD 10: August 26, Update B

2011-08-26T18:01:00.003-04:00

Gotta be quick as I have about 10 minutes to do this and then I’m out of time until tomorrow.

Hurricane Irene:
I see they have progressively brought her wind speed down, so now she is a weak cat 2 with winds of 100 mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). I think she’s a bit weaker than this, but at least they are heading in the right direction. Central pressure is 951mb. She’s at 31.7N, 77.4W, officially still maintaining that Northward heading at 14mph. However if you look at the satellite images, she’s heading NNE, so the outer banks look very likely. No eye, and the convection has decreased so most people will get a lot of rain, but not too much in the way of thunderstorms. Should be like a normal day in the UK!

The intensity as she moves north has also been downgraded. I expect it to get lower. At the moment they have a Cat 1 (range: 74-95mph) in the New York area, and I expect a Tropical Storm (39-73mph) by the time it gets to New England. Again, they are basing this on a stronger initial intensity than I think she has, so I expect it to be a Tropical Storm sooner than that. Especially as wind shear really really picks just north of Cape Hatteras!

TD 10:
This one is now apparently at 15.6N, 34.3W, moving NW at 8mph. Winds are 35mph, central pressure 1009mb. They expect it to vanish by Monday. I still disagree, but this storm has so little oomph to it that it doesn’t look like it will amount to much. ‘So little oomph’ is a technical phrase for that you can translate to this storm hasn’t eaten it’s spinach and is therefore a wimp ;-).

Bother, I have run out of time. Well, good luck and may the force be with you all!
Back tomorrow!
Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene and TD10: August 26, Update A

2011-08-26T08:18:00.003-04:00

Hurricane Irene:
They downgraded her to a cat 2 storm last night (barely) with winds officially at 110mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) and a central pressure of 945mb. This is ok, I know they have to be conservative and cautious and there are a lot of people getting ready. I’ll give them this (obviously I’m a much nicer person before my first cuppa tea ;-)). At least she’s in the right category now. They have changed their forecast back to her being a cat 3 at landfall in the North Carolina region, but they do acknowledge that she’s expected to be a strong cat2/weak cat 3 at landfall. I think this is an overestimate too. At the moment they are basing this on her being a border-line cat 2/cat 3 now, but I think she’s weaker than that at the moment for a number of reasons:

1. She does not have a well-developed eye, which I expect in a mid-to-strong cat 2, let alone a cat 3.
2. She is not symmetrical.
3. There is wind shear and dry air to the west side of the storm.
4. The convection is not as strong as I would expect from a strong cat 2.
5. She is interacting with land on the west side of the storm.

Here are the Visible and IR satellite images so you can see for yourselves:

If she is going to intensify (and there is a chance of this because she is still interacting with the deep warm waters of the Gulf Stream), then she will intensify from a weaker intensity rather than the stronger intensity they have her at now. However, as I said, their job is to be cautious and given the population density ahead of this system, I am glad they are doing that.

If you are in the path of the storm, then remember two things:
1.Listen to your Emergency Managers – if they say evacuate, then please evacuate. Fascinating though my words may be, you can always read them later. ;-)
2.If for whatever reason you can’t evacuate (maybe too many people on the road or something), “Hide from the wind, run from the surge.” – those areas that might get storm surge should evacuate. Those who are on higher ground/inland – unless it’s a cat 4 or 5, you can hide (and even in those two cases you can hide, but personally, I would run away if that’s what was heading towards me). It’ll be rough, but it’s possible.

She is at 30N, 77.3W, currently heading N at 14mph, with a NNE turn expected later today. Today I will be watching to make sure she carries on this track and doesn’t slow down or move towards the NNW.

For those of you north of North Carolina, her intensity will depend on how much she interacts with land before getting to you. In your favour, you don’t have a Gulf Stream. If she is going to intensity, she will do that south of the North Carolina region because the Gulf Stream heads out into the Atlantic from Cape Hatteras. Of course, if she stays away from land (North Carolina region), then there’s a chance she won’t make landfall until she gets much farther north. Despite this, you should be getting ready for a cat 2 storm (although I expect it will be a cat 1 at the most), and of course the closer you are to NC, the greater the intensity.

Surf is good on the Atlantic Coast of Florida I hear!

Tropical Depression 10:
Ok, on this one I completely disagree with the NHC. Officially they have it moving WNW at 9mph, located at 14.5N, 33.7W. I have it at around 13-14N (not a very clear storm, hard to find the center), and stationary. It has not moved since last night. I wish I’d taken a snapshot of this little thing yesterday evening. I took one this morning, and will take one later for comparison. Winds are still officially 35mph, central pressure 1009mb. I understand they are distracted with Irene, but there are people in the Caribbean who are already watching this one.

Today is a super busy day, but I’ll try and pop back later.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene and the TD 10: August 25, Update C

2011-08-25T23:27:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Irene:
She’s finally cleared the Bahamas after paying Grand Abaco a visit. Here’s one of those cam thingies from Rockybay on Abaco… http://www.rockybay.com/webcam_page.htm (sent to me by Charlie in Florida). This photo was taken yesterday evening, and it looks like that they lost their internet connection early this morning. Conditions look perfect for an outdoor picnic, don’t they?

As of the last advisory she’s hanging out at around 28.3N, 77.3W, moving N at 14mph (good, she’s moving N finally!). They have kept her winds at 115mph all day, with a central pressure of 942 mb. This means she’s been a category 3 (range: 111-130mph). I still think this is an overestimate, however two aircraft found this low pressure – a NOAA plane and an Air Force plane (I completely agree with the NHC when they say that these aircraft supply very valuable data!!). Interestingly, they did not record a corresponding increase in winds, suggesting that she is not structurally as sound as she could be. The NHC say they are keeping her intensity at a cat 3 for now, but may change that if the winds do not pick up. In the IR satellite image below you can see that she’s really not symmetrical (because of wind shear and dry air), and although she has an eye, there’s not as much red and no grey meaning that cloud tops are not as high as they could be in such a storm.

Another clue that she has weakened is her upper level divergence and lower level convergence – these have both weakened since this morning as well. The other thing the satellite image shows in the large reach of this system… she’s been eating one too many donuts, hasn’t she? ;-) Her outer bands at the moment are still over the southern Bahamas to the south, and North Carolina to the north. I took a couple of photos of the outer bands over on this coast of Florida, but don’t have the time to upload them. They were obviously of award winning quality. ;-)

They have, however, downgraded her forecast intensity at landfall, with landfall as a cat 2 (range: 96-110mph) in North Carolina on Saturday. The wind shear ahead of her will continue to increase, even though she’s over warm deep waters. It looks like at the moment she is tracking east of the forecast track actually – I hope she continues in this N and NNE (and then NE) direction tomorrow!

Tropical Depression 10:
This one now has some nice circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but the convection isn’t quite there. Hmm… officially the NHC have this one at around 14.1N, 33.1W, moving WNW at a slightly slower 9mph. The satellite images show it at around 13.8N, 35.2W (ish – it’s night time so it’s tricky for me to see). That doesn’t match up at all. How odd. Central pressure is 1009mb, winds are 35mph (over estimate still). They have forecast this one to head NW and fizzle out in the Atlantic on Sunday at around 17N, 36W. I think it will carry on WNW for a lot longer, especially if they have it at the wrong coordinates! It is surrounded by a high pressure on all sides so I expect this to slow down a lot more, and possibly stall.

That’s it for tonight.
Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene and TD10: August 25, Update B

2011-08-25T12:55:00.002-04:00

Quick lunchtime update on things.

Hurricane Irene:
Officially her winds are 115mph, central pressure 951mb. She’s at around 26N, 76.8W moving NNW at 13mph.

Although officially she is still a cat 3 with winds at 115mph, I don’t think she’s a cat 3 (range: 111mph- 130mph). In fact, I think she’s weakened further since this morning and may be a strong cat 1 (range: 74-95mph), possibly weak cat 2 (96-110mph). Here is the satellite IR image of Irene:

There is no eye and there hasn’t been for many hours. She is not very circular – a result of wind shear. And her convection is much weaker – very few really strong thunderstorms (not much of the red or dark gray colour means that the cloud tops are warmer – I covered that in an earlier post this season). She still has a good circulation of course, and also covers a large area, but that doesn’t make her a cat 3.

She’s moving NNW at the moment, parallel to the FL coast. Now it depends if she continues to turn to the North and then NNE soon enough… that will be tomorrow and that’s what I’ll be watching for then. The latest pressure fields still have a gap in that Georgia/S. Carolina area, but it has shifted north a smidgen. It looks like a South or North Carolina landfall is likely so I would kinda agree now with part of the NHC forecast. In my mind I question her intensity. Currently the forecast has her as a cat 3 all the way up to landfall in North Carolina on Saturday.

I guess they are keeping her as a weak cat 3 so that everyone continues to get prepared for the worst, in case she strengthens further. However, this messes up the science because the data scientists use to study storms are things like the official wind speed, the duration that a storm was at a certain category etc. Surely it would be better to have her downgraded and tell everyone that there’s a strong chance she will become stronger (and why). Ho hum.

Tropical Depression 10:
This poor little thing is struggling to get it’s convection up to speed, it really is. The circulation looks a bit wishy-washy too at the moment. This might not even develop any further if it slows down. I’ll keep watching it of course. Central pressure is 1010mb, which is quite high for a low (!!!), with winds estimated to be 35mph (doesn’t look that strong to me). It’s officially at 13.3N, 31.8W, moving WNW at 12mph.

Until later,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene & Tropical Depression 10: August 25, Update A

2011-08-25T08:03:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Irene:
Well the good news is that wind shear took a bit out of her and although officially her winds are 115mph, making her a weak cat 3 storm (range: 111-130mph), I think she might be a bit weaker than that, but still in the strong cat 2-to-cat 3 range. Central pressure is 950mb, but she does not have a good eye at the moment and her outflow is not equal in all sectors. A hurricane is truly a combination of the ocean and atmosphere combined. As she gets closer to Florida and the eastern US her intensity will be a battle between good and evil… between the atmosphere and the ocean… between the wind shear (inhibit her development) and the deep warm ocean (allow her to develop). The wind shear looks like it will get stronger as she gets to that region, so we’ll see whether that is strong enough to prevent her from becoming a cat 4.

The 8am advisory has her at around 25.5N, 76.5W, heading NW at 13mph. The not so good news is that the high pressure that had started to redevelop has continued on that trend. Yesterday the turning point was around North Carolina. Today it extends a bit farther south, to the Georgia/S. Carolina region. This is a bit troublesome because if this trend continues, she might not make the forecast N & NNE turns, and instead continue NNW and then back to NW tomorrow/later today, which means she will head closer to S. Carolina/Georgia/Florida. What we are watching for today is that turn towards the north so she runs parallel to the Florida coastline and then later today/tomorrow for the turn to NNE.

Tropical Depression 10:
They have upgraded the Atlantic Blob to a Tropical Depression, which means it has closed circulation with winds greater than 17mph. Convection and circulation are both weak but still developing. It is currently heading W at around 10-15mph, but might slow down later today because it is surrounded by high pressure. The pressure at the moment extends to the southern Caribbean, so for now I would say it will continue to track west, and then follow a curve similar to Irene’s towards the Dominican Republic region – but it is far too early to say with any certainty.

More later,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene & Atlanic Blob: August 24, Update A

2011-08-24T20:03:00.003-04:00

Hurricane Irene is a nice looking storm from the satellite images. About 5 minutes after my last update I guess she got my phone message, so since about 1am EST she’s been moving in a NW direction and picked up a bit of speed (the velocity type, not the drug type!) and has been churning forward at 12mph all day. In the last NHC advisory at 8pm EST, she had winds of 120mph which makes her a mid-sized category 3 storm (range: 111-130mph), and a major hurricane. Central pressure is 954mb. She’s currently at around 23.5N, 75W, moving NW at 12mph. She went over Crooked Island (twice) and is going between Long Island and Rum Cay.

Intensity:
She’s had an eye on and off for most of the day so I think a strong cat 2-to-cat 3 range is about right. She also has some low level convergence (inflow near the bottom) and upper level divergence (outflow near the top) and both the convection and circulation is looking good of course.

Here is a satellite image of the water vapour over the Northwest Atlantic:
This shows how humid the atmosphere is of course, with the dry parts in brown and the humid parts range from white (cloudy) to a dark pinky-purple-blue colour for heavy rain (I’m sure there’s a name for this colour – magenta maybe?). Anyway, you can see Irene over the Bahamas. I wanted to show you this image for two reason, one of which is to show you what good outflow looks like in a satellite image. It is shown by the white clouds, especially on the northern edge of this storm where the outflow is really nice. To me, it kinda looks like the outer edge of a rotary saw blade, for those of you familiar with such tools (umm, yes, so maybe I do know my tools better than my colours. I’m a card-carrying geeky physicist-type… I like technical things and maths and stuff ;-)). In a category 4 or 5 storm, the outflow would be really nice on all sides. I’m sure you’ve all seen images of hurricanes with good outflow on all sides… well now you know what the edges are indicating. In Irene, on the east side we have a stream of clouds instead of good outflow. This is because of wind shear… which is picking up a bit and is flowing from out of the northwest. The wind shear looks like it might continue to increase as Irene moves farther NW. This is good because it might help to curb her a bit as she gets closer to the Florida Current and then Gulf Stream, but I would not be surprised if she developed into a category 4 storm. Currently water temperatures are around 30 deg C, with water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 75m. I think she’ll remain a Category 2 or 3 for the rest of today as she carries on through the Bahamas.

Track:
Blistering barnacles Tintin, but she’s a tricky one to keep track of (puns intended). As we expected, she took that NW turn and picked up speed because the high pressure in front her eroded yesterday. Today, unfortunately, it has started to build back up. This is not what I asked for! I am trying to figure out a way to show you this (now that I have the technical abilities of a 5 year old and can upload images to the blog site), but it would take me some time to explain what you are looking at so for now, a thousand words will have to tell a picture.

There are two things to chat about here.

First, the actual pressure fields. The edge of the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure is always fluctuating (pressure fields discussed in some much earlier in the season entry), and unfortunately it is fluctuating right along the US east coast at the moment. Yesterday it was moving out towards the Atlantic, today it is moving in towards the coast. Tomorrow I don’t know yet (time machine is on the blink). Based on these fluctuations and maps, I figure out the direction she will take. For now, it looks like she has room to carry on moving NW, but won’t turn NNW, then N and northeast into the Atlantic as quickly as I had hoped. Bother.

Second, is the forecast track which takes her to North Carolina on Saturday afternoon and then to New York (As A Hurricane) on Sunday, and then to the rest of New England and Canada for Monday. This is the other reason why I wanted to show you the vapour image. If you look to the north and find the Great Lakes, just north of that is a swirlygig. This low pressure system that has been moving east across Canada, and that is what the models are essentially incorporating into her forecast track… this is why they are taking her up along the east coast to New York and beyond (AS A HURRICANE – I hope you guys are also getting ready!).

In my head, both the high pressure and that northern low are factors in her track. What I don’t know is how much emphasis the models give to one over the other, and I don’t have enough information to be able to say what will dominate yet either. In the good old days I know they gave too much weight to these low pressures to the north, but the models have evolved over the last few years as well, so I don’t know if this is the case anymore. This will be an interesting thing to watch (from a scientific/observational point of view). I hope everyone is preparing for a pretty big storm! I’ll be looking for changes in the high pressure tomorrow and the following day.

This is a big storm – both in terms of her size and also in terms of her intensity. Please be getting ready – even if she stays offshore, at the moment category 1 or higher winds are within 60 miles of the center, and tropical storm force winds are estimated to extend out to 230 miles!

Atlantic Blob:
Meanwhile, on the eastern side of the Atlantic, there is another blob. It is beginning to look good – convection is picking up because the Saharan Air Layer is no longer a big factor (boo). It is currently at around 12.5N, 27W, moving WNW at around 10-15mph. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. There is some wind shear, but I don’t see anything that will stop this from becoming the next Tropical Storm.

That might be it for today – busy day!
More tomorrow (unless I see some amazing new data that changes things).
Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene: August 23, Update B

2011-08-24T01:22:00.002-04:00

Strictly speaking, it’s August 24, but this was supposed to be written before midnight rolled around. Oopsie.

The NHC downgraded Hurricane Irene to a category 1 (range: 74-95mph) storm this evening, with winds of 90mph, and central pressure of 969mb. Since then I think she might have strengthened again a tad, because there’s a very clear eye in that mass of swirling clouds:

And that central pressure is rather low for a cat 1. I think she’s back at being a good cat 2 again. They had forecasted her to be a category 3 by this afternoon, but (in my humble opinion) because she lingered over/near Hispaniola for so long, it took its toll on her. She is now forecast to become a cat 3 (wind speed range: 111-130mph) overnight on wed/thurs as she reaches the northern edge of the Bahamas. This is a more reasonable forecast (again, in my humble opinion) because she will be closer to the Florida Current, which is part of the Loop Current-Gulf Stream system and runs along the east coast of <insert drumroll> Florida. The entire Loop Current (in the Gulf of Mexico) – Florida Current (in the Straits of Florida/east coast of Florida) – Gulf Stream (skirting the east coast of the US from Florida until Cape Hatteras in NC) is an area of deep warm waters, with the upper 75m (at least) being warmer than 26 deg C. Unless something happens in the atmosphere (like wind shear), there’s nowt to stop her from growing to a cat 3 as she approaches the northern end of the Bahamas.

She is currently at around 21.3N, 72.4W and is still heading WNW at a slow(ish) 9mph (apparently no-one told her that slowing down was *so* yesterday! ;-)).

She is almost on top of the southern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos region and will, unfortunately, cause quite a bit of havoc there. There is some heavy convection over those southern islands at the moment.

Ok, tomorrow I am looking for her to move towards the NW and pick up speed. But just for something a bit different, here’s a cool photo of her taken from the International Space Station: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_2043.html (thanks to Trent in Florida for sending that).

Regarding the natural disaster-du-jour… to Rob in Georgia: why yes, I do forecast earthquakes but no-one has ever asked me… why do you ask? ;-) Ha, I wish! Hopefully the northeast US won’t be hit by an earthquake AND a hurricane in the same week! (although, hmm… do you think this tactic will work to increase funding for the environmental sciences?) Anyway, from a state that is used to such things, Ben in California reliably informs me that they should have no problems re-building from the damage this caused…J:

More from Hurricane Irene The First tomorrow and I might mention another Atlantic Blob (far out to the east still) if I have time.

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene: August23, Update A

2011-08-23T14:25:00.002-04:00

A quick note for now: Irene did indeed slow down and has been impacting the Dominican Republic for over 24 hours now, but I have just seen what I was waiting for (phew) - the high pressure in front of her has been eroded. This means she will begin to speed up a bit in forward motion and move more rapidly towards (and through) the Bahamas. But I expect that this shift in pressure also means that she will probably stay out in the Atlantic. It looks to me like there’s a good chance she will not make landfall along the eastern seaboard of the US. I expect that track that currently takes her to the Carolinas to keep shifting to the right and I also expect her to take a more northerly turn (i.e. move NW instead of WNW). I know a lot of people all along the eastern seaboard are getting ready, and I think that’s a prudent thing to do. I don’t think she’ll manage to swing over as far as Bermuda, but you guys on Bermuda should watch her carefully just in case.

My ideal scenario now is that she takes a NW turn today, then N, then NE, so she only skirts the right side of the Bahamas, and then heads out into the Atlantic, steering clear of Bermuda as well. I’ll give her a call and see if she will oblige. ;-)

The impact with the Dominican Republic has taken a bit of steam out of her and her convection has weakened (for now). I don’t think she’s quite a category 2 (cat 2 range: 96-110ph), but is certainly a good category 1 (range: 74-95mph), and there was some doubt about the strength of her winds on the NHC site this morning as well. I see an eye beginning to develop, which suggests winds of maybe 90-100mph, so I don’t know if they will bother to downgrade her because they have her at the higher end of that envelope. She will get more intense as she gets closer to the Florida Current/Gulf Stream. The one good piece is that because she stayed closer to the Dominican Republic, the brunt of the rain was on the east side of Hispaniola and Haiti was spared.

She’s currently at around 20.7N, 71.2W, moving WNW at 10mph. Winds are 100mph, so still holding as a weak-to-mid intensity cat 2, and central pressure is 977mb.

More later!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene: August 22, Update B

2011-08-22T21:54:00.004-04:00

Irene was upgraded just about 1.5 hours ago to a category 2 hurricane, based on aircraft observations. They estimate winds to be 100mph which makes her a weak-to-mid level cat 2 (Category 2 range: 96-110mph). The central pressure is 981mb. I would agree with the assessment that her winds are greater than 80mph, although I don’t know if she’s quite that strong yet. There is not eye, and usually at around 90-100mph wind speeds we begin to see an eye in the satellite images.

However her convection has increased, and the upper tropospheric circulation slowly continues to improve. The only good news is that the worst weather is offshore from Hispaniola, although the Dominican Republic is getting a downpour and quite a few strong thunderstorms at the moment. I hope everyone is ok there (including you holiday-makers). Here's a satellite Infra-Red image of the area to show you:

If you somehow forgot or missed my amazingly wonderful and witty words of wisdom (move over Oscar Wilde ;-)), how to read IR satellite images is in this entry: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/07/caribbean-blob-july-27.html.

Umm, it looks like she has slowed down a tad and her track has shifted slightly southwards, bringing her a bit closer to Hispaniola (but currently the center will still remain off-shore). Her forward speed is now 10mph (which is still fairly decent as forward speeds go) and although she’s heading WNW still, it’s a little more westward than that (for now anyway). This translates to the Dominican Republic getting wet and windy weather for over 24 hours because she has been in that area since this morning, and hasn’t yet got to the closest point to the island in her forecast track.

Although her current track is slightly south that before, the longer range forecast still takes her northwest through the Bahamas and to the east of Florida. It looks like the forecast curve has sharpened to more of a turn really: ‘get to Cat Island and take a right turn at the golden arches’). I think this is because the computer models are focusing on a low pressure front that is moving through the US and off the North Carolina region into the Atlantic - that’s the target she’s aiming for (in the models). I was hoping she would be making a bit more of a definite move towards the Bahamas by this evening, but with her slowing down a bit I will, instead, be looking for that tomorrow.

The forecast also makes her a category 3 storm by tomorrow afternoon. If she remains on a WNW track and moves away from Hispaniola, I agree with that. It looks like the Bahamas are going to have a bit of a tricky time. If she is a cat 3 as she goes through the Bahamas, I would not put it past her to decide she’d like to be a cat 4 as she gets to the Florida Current/Gulf Stream region (assuming that’s the path she takes). I know the track has her making landfall probably in the Carolina’s on Saturday. Until she moves into the Bahamas, it’s a bit tricky to assess this (from my limited information) but tomorrow I will try and make the time to hop into my time machine and have a peek at the future.

Until tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Irene: August 22, Update A

2011-08-22T13:36:00.003-04:00

As expected, Irene is now a hurricane and the first of the season. She was upgraded overnight as she visited Puerto Rico, where I hear she caused some damage – power loss to over a million people, trees down, flooding etc. No reports of major injuries though (phew).

From the US VIs, Tom reported in at 2.12am with:
“2:12am aug 22. Power still on and uninterrupted since around 7pm last night. raining all night long with heavy wind gusting the dickens out of the vegetation...forget the late mango season. not sure how the rest of the island is faring but the wind part of this storm is still a factor. but, as hurricane and storms go, the worst is facing all of the rain which will impact negatively when it comes 7 inches in a short period. As a wise old British Virgin Islander was quoted (donkey years ago) as saying about hurricanes and storms..." it's the tail end that stinks"”

And at 11.12am:
“After my 2 am report we fell asleep and got up at 6am to very little wind and mostly light rain(and internet serving tower down with no power). still light rain on and off but we are not free of the systems' rain bearing clouds. Have not heard about the impact on San Juan or Puerto Rico...looks like Irene got stronger as she was leaving us”

From the British Virgin Islands, amongst other things, I read that Sir Richard Branson’s house was completely destroyed (burned) because of lightning and winds from this storm (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14616123).

Irene has been strengthening slowly and her center is near the Dominican Republic at the moment. As of the last advisory (11am EST) she was at around 19N, 67.5W heading WNW at 13mph. From looking at the satellite images, it looks like her center is now at around 19.1N, 67.7W, but I will put my slight westward estimate down to a cloudy satellite image (puns always intended ;-)), and will quite happily duct tape yesterday’s niggling voice in my head. ;-)

She’s a weak-to-mid-sized category 1 hurricane (Cat 1 winds range: 74-95mph). Winds are 80mph, central pressure 988mb. Tropical storm force winds extend out to about 160 nmi northeast from the center. It looks like she weakened slightly earlier this morning because both the circulation in the upper troposphere decreased a bit, and also the lower level inflow and upper level outflow (convergence/divergence – that fun & fascinating ‘bit-o-science’ over the weekend J) weakened slightly. Although the circulation has already improved at the highest levels of the troposphere, I think she will be slow to strengthen today because her outer bands are interacting with Hispaniola.

The forecast has her going north of Hispaniola and through the Bahamas, becoming a major hurricane overnight on Weds evening/Thurs morning. A major hurricane is defined as a category 3 or higher, and has winds stronger than 111mph. Here are the latest conditions that will impact Irene’s intensity:

1. The wind shear is low, and looks like it will remain low, so this won’t inhibit her from strengthening
2. The water temperatures are 29-30 deg C. Water temperatures are warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 75m or so of the water column. That’s a small reduction since yesterday, so for now it will allow her to develop but not as quickly as she could have if she was somewhere else.<
3. She is out of the dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer, so that will no longer inhibit her development.
4. Her vertical structure is looking good, with strong circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, and slowly increasing circulation in the upper troposphere.
5. Finally, and perhaps most critically, the intensity will depend on what her track is. If she is closer to Hispaniola than the current center of cone forecast suggests, then her intensity will not increase as quickly as forecast.

The track is the key to her intensity. Once she gets over the Florida Current and Gulf Stream there will be very little to stop her from growing. The NHC have repeatedly cautioned the reliance of the 4-5 day forecasts (and I would agree with them saying this). Over the last 5 years the average error for the 4 day forecast is about 200 miles, and for the 5 day forecast it is about 250 miles.

The rain and thundery weather is over the DR at the moment, and heading towards Haiti. As usual, Haiti is the most vulnerable at the moment from flooding etc. They will get that later today, unfortunately.

Meanwhile, a small Atlantic blob is trying to develop at around 20N, 33W. Circulation is good in the lowest levels of the troposphere, and poor thing is trying valiantly to get some convection going, but it is surrounded by dry and dusty air.

Here is a satellite map of the Atlantic:

The blob to the left is what’s left of Harvey, the middle one is Irene, and the one to the right is the little Atlantic blob. Pretty cool image, huh? J

Lunchtime over. More later!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TD Harvey & TS Irene: August 21, Update C

2011-08-22T00:03:00.002-04:00

TD Harvey:
I thought I might as well keep going, because apparently he is still going. We are all having a difficult time finding his center (e.g. from the NHC at 11pm EST: “THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING.”) So he’s not a very well developed system, and it’s really tricky to tell if he’s even over the Bay of Campeche, even though it did look like he might have made a move in that direction. His last estimate from the NHC was at 19N, 95W, moving WNW at 12mph. I think he’s already west of there, and has made landfall in Mexico again. Winds were weakish at 35mph, central pressure estimate 1005mb. Although convection increased during the day, it should begin to decrease again soon. So this is my last entry on this system – really this time!

TS Irene:
The latest NHC advisory has her located at 17.9N, 65.5W moving WNW at 15mph. Her winds are now at 70mph, which makes her almost at hurricane strength (TS range: 39-73mph) and her central pressure is 993mb. The track has shifted northward and eastward during the day, which would reflect the fact that the center was on the northernmost edge of their cone this morning (actually looked like it was just north of that). She has officially passed the US Virgin Islands and is about 50 miles SE of San Juan, Puerto Rico now, although the entire area is getting rainy and windy sort of weather. Hurricane watches have been posted for the entire area, including the VIs. They are telling everyone not to focus on the track at 4-5 days from now because there is a huge amount of uncertainty in this. I agree and will explain below.

Intensity: She is just about leaving the Saharan Air Layer now, so her convection has improved and will continue to improve:

I would be surprised if we didn’t wake up tomorrow to our first hurricane of the season. Wind shear is not very strong compared to the storm, so that will only have a slight impact. Water temperatures are still in the 29-30 deg C range at the surface, with waters warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 100m. The only thing that will slow down her development is the land masses of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (and possibly Cuba if she interacts with it in the future).

Track: Her track was pretty much as I thought earlier – she hit the northeastern Caribbean islands and the forecast shows her clipping the northern side of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic:

At least that is what the latest center of the cone is showing. Umm… however… there’s this little niggling voice in my head that is saying that now she’s managed to visit every island up there, she might actually take a more westward track tomorrow, or she might slow down and stall. The reason I say this is because there is an area of high pressure in front of her, which means that it is like going uphill for her, which she won’t like to do (because storms are lazy ;-)). If she moves W (or even WSW), the track will shift towards the south and west again. If she slows down or stalls, that’s another scenario entirely because where she slows/stalls will impact her intensity as well. I could be completely wrong, which would be fine with me because I don’t particularly like either of those scenarios compared to her current forecast track.

Reports from the field:
I’ve heard from Tom in St. Thomas throughout the day and I posted some of his notes earlier. The latest one was at 8.08pm:
“wind in north quadrant is very strong and must be close to 60mph. lots more rain north of this storm and it is powerwashing St. Thomas, the strangest thing of all is that the electrical power here where we live has been on more than off. with the wind as high as it has been all day just can't figure that more power lines are not down. with the bulk of the weather north of us now I figure the center will move more northward as well which may spare florida. fingers crossed!”

I also heard from Debbie, whose mum (on St. Thomas) said that they were under a curfew on the island from 6pm until 6am.

Thank you for the reports from in the field! I hope everything is ok over there and you are all safe.

More tomorrow!
Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TS Irene: August 21, Update B

2011-08-21T15:58:00.002-04:00

Quick update: Irene is a bit north of the NHC track (right on the northern edge of the cone), and her center is passing directly over the Virgin Islands (pretty much directly over The Virgin Island in fact) en route to Puerto Rico – so she is essentially passing over all the islands. Convection is still not too strong overall, with the worst of it being north of the center. From updates Tom in St. Thomas:

1.13pm: Just got back online as the power had been out when a brisk frontal band swept in from the east...the large orange blob is now on top of us and bringing windy rain squalls not continuous yet…the trees are dancing to brisk gusts, maybe 25mph or so. waiting for the worst of the weather. am surprised that the power is on and holding. no flooding as of yet...1:11pm

2.33pm: winds have picked up to well beyond kite flying stage. strong and heavy gusts, almost steady 30mph with higher gusts. moderate rain but nothing flooding so far. electrical power holding at 2:32

3:09pm:from the sattel. pics I am viewing I would say we are closer to the center of Irene than NHC thinks.

More later,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Harvey & TS Irene: August 21, Update A

2011-08-21T11:10:00.004-04:00

Ok, I’m now armed with a new bottle of window cleaner and can see things more clearly. We have what’s left of Harvey and Irene to chat about.

TD Harvey:
Let’s just get Harvey out of the way shall we? His convection started to deteriorate yesterday evening as he moved away from the bad influence of the Caribbean waters, and he is now just a tropical depression. Currently he is at around 17N, 92.6W (a little south of the official location), heading W(ish – with a bit of a southerly direction in there) at 15mph. Winds are 30mph and central pressure is 1006mb. He’ll probably stay over land (Mexico) and the plan is that he will fizzle away there. However, I see his circulation is still very good in the lowest half of the troposphere. If his center is a little south of the official location (17.7N, 92.6W) then there is a very very small chance that he might cross over into the Pacific and decide to have another go. If the center is at the official location, there’s a very small chance he will remerge into the Gulf before hitting Mexico again. This will be my last entry on Harvey, unless he does something else.

TS Irene:
“I can see clearly now the rain has gone” (who sang that first?). It pretty much sums up Irene (well, it also helps that it is daylight now). The dry, dusty air took its toll and the convection decreased a bit – it is still not very cohesive. This is why Tom on St. Thomas reported: “as of 6am not a single drop of rain here in Peterborg… and the trees are as still as a painting.” and then again about three hours later “we had a 5 minute rain about 45 min ago...still no wind yet but I think if the NHC track is correct things should get interesting later today as the VI will be in the northeast quad where the winds should be brisk.”

The NHC center was in the wrong place last night, but not to the south as I was guessing. It ‘redeveloped’ to the north. At the last advisory they had her at 17N, 63.2W, moving WNW at 20 mph. This means her track is closer to the north-eastern islands of the Caribbean (it might actually pass over all of them and skirt the northern side of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic).

They currently have her as a mid-level Tropical Storm with winds at around 50mph (TS range:39-73mph) and a central pressure of 1005mb. I think the winds might be stronger than this. Her circulation is very good in the lower half of the troposphere, and there is also a signal in the upper troposphere (the first clear signal up there that I’ve seen all year)– this is an indication of her being close to hurricane strength. However, because her rainbands are not very well developed, I don’t know if they will classify her as a hurricane until she has had a chance to improve her convection as well. The forecast calls for a hurricane as she gets to the Dominican Republic, but it will be interesting to see what call the NHC will make if she doesn’t manage to get the convection going. The main convection is to the north side of the center, so I agree with Tom’s analysis that they should get something more ‘interesting’ later today. Sea surface temperatures are around 29-30 deg C in this area, the upper 100m of the water is warmer than 26 deg C, and wind shear is not too strong – these are factors that will help her to develop. But working against her is the SAL and her interactions with the islands (although they are small, they still have a bit of an impact).

Another indication that she has good bone structure is the upper level divergence and lower level convergence, which are both looking good. I hear you ask: “But what gobbly-de-gook is this that she babbling about now? It’s Sunday morning… surely too early for a glass of wine already?” ;-)

<Science Alert> (yay! J).

So, in addition to the other things I mention regularly, I also look at something called upper level divergence and lower level convergence. Although we all look at maps or satellite images of tropical storm, we know that tropical storms aren’t only 2-dimensional and on the surface but also have a structure that extends up vertically through the troposphere (the lowest level of the atmosphere – see much earlier blog for definition). At the surface (where we live), we know there is a low pressure at the center. You can imagine a low pressure being like a dip or valley and high pressure being a hill (I think I’ve mentioned this before when I talked about storm steering). When you have a fluid, like rainwater, and there’s a dip in the land, that’s where the water flows towards. Well the air is the same. Where there is low pressure, it flows towards that, and where there is high pressure, it flows away. So one indication of a strong storm is the central low pressure – the lower it is (i.e. the deeper the dip), the faster the air ‘rushes’ in and the stronger the winds are. Of course as it doesn’t just flow straight ‘in’, it spirals inwards because of the Coriolis effect (because the earth is rotating). But basically, lower level convergence is the convergence (or inflow) of this air near the surface.

Now you can’t have all this air rushing in from all directions without it going somewhere… so where does it go? It can’t go down because that’s where the earth is, so it has to flow upward. But at the top of the troposphere (called the tropopause) there is essentially a barrier in the atmosphere that divides the troposphere from the next level up (the stratosphere), which stops the air just carrying on upward all the time like we would see with smoke from a chimney or steam from a steam train (if you are into those). So there is only one way it can go when it reaches the tropopause, and that is out from the center. Because all this air is being ‘pushed’ upwards and flows outwards at the top, instead of low pressure, we have a high pressure at the top of a tropical storm. So upper level divergence is the divergence (or outflow) of this air at the top of the storm.

If the lower convergence and upper divergence are good, it means that the vertical structure of the storm is good.

<End of Science Alert>

Here are maps that show Irene’s lower convergence (left) and upper divergence (right).

You can see a nice concentric circular(ish) pattern in both images near the storm, which is what I expect to see with something that has a nice structure. If it didn’t have good structure, the pattern would not be as circular, and there would not be many concentric contours. The more contours we see, the stronger the storm.

Now that I’ve given you all something to think about, I’ll go and put my feet up. J I’ll be back later today with another update!

Oh, and with Gert, Harvey and now Irene, Kevin in Florida wants to know if these are tropical storm names or somehow we got confused with the roster for the members of a shuffleboard club. ;-) If it’s any help, the next two are Jose and Katia.

Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TS Harvey, TS Irene, and the Atlantic Blob: August 20, Update A

2011-08-20T22:39:00.003-04:00

My, my, we are on a role today, aren’t we? Two Tropical Storms in one sitting! So much activity… it must be a weekend. ;-)

TS Harvey:
He made landfall in Belize at around 1pm EST this afternoon, as a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure of 998mb. Over the last 7 hours or so he has lost some of that intensity and is now a mid-level Tropical Storm with winds of 50mph (central pressure still estimated to be around 998mb). Although he is over land, his circulation is still very good in the lower half of the troposphere and he is dumping bucket-loads of rain over Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula. He is not very well organized so I can’t really see where his center is at the moment. The NHC have it at around 17.2N, 88.8W with him moving WNW at 13mph. It almost looks like he’s a bit south of that, but I’ll go with the NHC center.

TS Irene:
This one is going to be interesting to watch. She’s currently still on the Atlantic side of the Leeward Islands. According to the NHC, her winds are around 50mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1006mb. There is a bit of wind shear, but she is also still in that Saharan Air Layer, which is keeping her a little off-kilter. Water temperatures are 28-29 deg C, with the upper ~100m warmer than 26 deg C.

At the moment both her circulation and her convection is a bit messy (she really should clean her house and she can even listen to Rick Springsteen as she’s doing it if she likes. It’s ok, we won’t judge ;-)). Because she’s so messy, I can’t quite make out the center of circulation in her either (the theme for this evening!). It kinda looks like it is a bit south of where the NHC center of cone is, but it is night now so the satellite imagery is not very clear. I am not convinced of her forecast track yet, which takes her to the Dominican Republic by Monday evening:

If her center is south of her current official location, then I think she might continue moving a little farther west than the track shows – that’s hopefully something we’ll find out tomorrow.

The track takes this to the Dominican Republic, potentially as a hurricane. Until she crosses the leeward islands and gets out of that Saharan Air Layer, I am not certain of this intensity forecast either.

I’ve heard from Tom in St. Thomas (US Virgin Islands) who is as ready as they can be for whatever Irene brings them. The outer bands have just about reached the US VI according to the satellite images, but it seems that the folks there did not get much warning. From Tom about 40 minutes ago: “we expect rain soon...we did not see anyone getting prepared for this storm and there was a brief mention of some wind and rain for late tonight and sunday on a news website”.

I think everyone should keep an eye on this one – of course those in the Caribbean, but also in Florida (both sides of the state) and along the US eastern seaboard. The long-range computer models have her going from a panhandle/west Florida landfall, all the way to heading east of Miami and along the east coast. If she heads along the current forecast track, she is unlikely to be a major hurricane because of the northern Caribbean Islands. At the moment there is a lot of uncertainty about Irene. I’ll run out tomorrow when the shops open and get some window cleaner so hopefully things will be a bit clearer tomorrow and we can see the center.

Atlantic Blob:
The blob that came off Africa still has stronger circulation than Irene, but the convection is a bit of a mess now. They have downgraded this to a 20% chance of forming. With Irene (and Harvey) out there, I’ll refrain from writing about this one unless something happens. My brain is already full! ;-)

That’s it for now. I’ll keep you updated with any in the field reports tomorrow.
Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Harvey and other assorted Atlantic Blobs: August 19, Update A

2011-08-20T00:09:00.002-04:00

Tropical Storm Harvey
Haha... Harvey was named this afternoon (about time). This amuses me no end, as you may have guessed from one or two things I’ve said before. A storm that got upgraded and named as it was already impacting land (and presumably people). Quelle surprise.

His center is just off the coast of Honduras and he is interacting with land. His current center is estimated to be at 16.2N, 85.2W, and he is moving W at 9mph, towards Belize. He has strengthened during the day and apparently has winds of 60mph, central pressure of 994mb. I say apparently, only because the winds I’m seeing from satellites are around 35-40knots or 40.25 – 46 mph (1 knot = 1.15mph). However, I think it is very possible that the snapshot I have access to is a few hours old and the winds (and convection) have picked up since then. Looking at the physics of the situation (ooh… physics!! How exciting! ;-) ), I can see why the winds and convection might increase, despite his proximity to land: the center is still over warm water (just about), with surface temperatures of 29-30 deg C and the upper 100m of the water column warmer than 26 deg C, so there is plenty to keep Harvey well-fed puppy for a few more hours.

Atlantic Blobette
There are a couple more blobby things out there:

There’s a blobette at around 15N, 52.5W. They give it a 60% chance of forming into a Tropical Storm. It certainly has some circulation in the lower troposphere, but it is still not very well defined. And there is not much in the way of convection at the moment, as you can see in the IR satellite image:

The Saharan Air Layer extends out to the Leeward Islands, which I hear have been put on alert. I am not sure it will pick up much convection until after it has crossed those. I’ll have a better look at this one tomorrow but the official word is that it is moving generally westward at 20mph.

Atlantic Blob
This is the one that came off the coast of Africa yesterday(ish). The circulation is not very well defined at the moment, although there is more convection in this system than in the Atlantic Blobette. I’ll look at this one more carefully tomorrow as well.

Now it’s time for a bit-o-beauty-sleep (sometimes available in a jar from your local grocery store ;-)).
Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression 8, the Atlantic Blobette and Blob: August 18, Update A

2011-08-19T00:39:00.003-04:00

Ben in California finally figured it out… apparently I missed the memo saying that any storm that is about to make landfall would be waaay too obvious to name, so this year they would only name tropical storms if they were in the Arctic. Sigh. ;-)

The NHC finally decided to upgrade my Caribbean Blob to an official Tropical Depression (number 8). It is, of course, already interacting with the central America land mass and is practically on top of Nicaragua/Honduras at this point so I don’t know if it will even have a chance to be named (I think they might have missed the boat on this one). It is heading West at 12mph, central pressure 1006mb, winds 35mph. Fortunately there isn’t much convection to this blob, certainly not as much as there was a couple of days ago anyway, and the winds are fairly light so it should all be groovy. A plane went in today to see if it could find a closed surface circulation because until this morning (or maybe it was last night) they said it didn’t have any. I am afraid my “Computer Says No” (hee hee, Little Britain ref) … I have been saving snapshots of the vorticity (circulation) over the past few days, showing quite clearly that it had good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. Maybe it will be named for a couple of minutes, we’ll see.

There is another Blob and also a Blobette out in the Atlantic:

The cloud that the NHC have marked with a 20% chance (yellow) of something developing currently has just a smidgen more convection than a desert on a dry day and the circulation is pretty weak and not well defined. The area where the NHC have a 30% chance (orange) of something developing just came off Africa and does actually have more circulation and convection, so I’ll agree with their assessment of that one for now.

The next three names are: Harvey, Irene and Jose. Hmm. I know a Harvey, Irene and Jose.

(non-sequiter) <cheese break><yumyum> (end non-sequiter)

We are on Tropical Depression number 8, and have had 7 named storms so far. I believe this is the first year since satellite observations began in the 1970s that we have not had a hurricane in the first 7 named storms! I think there are a few reasons for this:
1. They are naming storms that, in the days of yore, wouldn’t be named Tropical Storms.
2. Satellites are picking up storms out in the Atlantic that we would not have detected otherwise because they would be short-lived or small.
3. There are factors that are inhibiting storms. We’ve seen these in other seasons – things like wind shear, cooler water temperatures, atmospheric dynamics etc. This year (so far) I think the most likely culprit is the dust in the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that I mentioned a few days ago – lots and lots of that zero-calorie ;-) dry dusty air around. You can see an up-to-date map at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time and even watch a movie of the SAL over the past 5 days (ooh… who has the popcorn? ;-)).

These little tropical storms are useful things. For example, tropical storms account for at least 25% of Florida’s annual rainfall. We need them to bring some lovely rain and keep us out of drought conditions. It’s just when they get a bit too big for their boots that we get into trouble.

Time for another cheese break I think. J
Ciao (chow!) for now.
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Gert and the Caribbean Blob: August 16, Update A

2011-08-16T07:30:00.002-04:00

A note with my morning cuppa tea. J

TS Gert officially has winds of 45mph, central pressure of 1005mb and is at around 36.4N, 59.6W heading NE at 22mph. I don’t think there’s really much left of this storm. The convection is practically non-existent and the vorticity (circulation) is decreasing. It looks like the NHC are forecasting to downgrade her tomorrow, but I don’t think there’s anything that indicates she’s that strong so this is my last entry on Gert.

The Caribbean Blob is still one I’m watching. The NHC currently have this at a 20% chance of developing into a TS in the next 48 hours. This is possible, but at the moment I wouldn’t be totally surprised if we have a TS within 48 hours. The vorticity is actually a little stronger in this one than in Gert, all it needs is a new outfit and a few clouds with rain and it’s good to go. We’ll see how quickly it picks those up – it has already changed in appearance over the last few hours with those thundery clouds developing just north of its center of circulation. It is moving westward at somewhere around 15-20 mph. What is really remarkable is that despite the low convection, you can already see a clear outer band in the satellite IR image. It stretches from South America all the way north past the Dominican Republic. Very pretty.

More when something happens!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Gert and a Caribbean Blob: August 15, Update A

2011-08-15T21:32:00.002-04:00

Tropical Storm Gert:
Although Tropical Storm Gert has winds of 60mph, making her a mid-intensity tropical storm (TS range: 39-73mph), she’s been pretty well behaved. She stayed well east of Bermuda. From the satellite images it looked like they had some cloudy weather and maybe a spot of rain here or there. As she was zooming by, Steve from Bermuda wrote “slight breeze here. More wind generated by the passing traffic than gust-less Gert in Bermuda.” This surprised me because from the satellite images it doesn’t look like Bermuda is big enough to have more than one car so I can only assume he was talking about golf cart and Segway traffic. ;-)

She is currently at around 33.5N, 62W, heading NNE at 14mph. She has some convection, but not the really deep stuff. Water temperatures are 27-29 deg C, and there is some wind shear. I don’t see her developing into anything more and she’s just heading out into the Atlantic. She’s a cute little storm really. Just like her name.

Oh, speaking of her name… to David from Florida: no, she’s GERT, not GORT. <sci-fi diversion!> In case any of you were wondering, Gort is the name of the alien robot from The Day The Earth Stood Still:

The 2008 remake starred Keanu Reeves. It will come as no big surprise to my friends that a perfectly innocent conversation about an Atlantic Tropical Storm has turned into a conversation about Keanu Reeves. I don’t know how these things happen. ;-) I think if the NHC run out of names, we should begin naming tropical storms after characters from sci-fi (we could expand to other genres if we run out of names). J I mean really, how scary could Tropical Storm Jar Jar Binks possibly get? On the other hand I suppose Tropical Storm Davros might turn into something scary. <end of sci-fi diversion!>

Caribbean Blob:
Just like Keanu Reeves, this Caribbean Blob is one to watch. Yesterday it was over the Atlantic and had a lot of convection, but until this morning the circulation was pretty pathetic. However, today the circulation picked right up. Fortunately for us it was crossing the Windward Islands so it’s convection took a hit (and is now pretty pathetic). It is now in the Caribbean, with good circulation but poor convection. The reason we need to watch this is because the wind shear is low, it is on the western edge of the Saharan Air Layer (dust) (SAL), the sea surface water temperature is 29-30 deg C, with water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 75-100m. I’m estimating the center is somewhere around 14N, 62W and it appears to be moving westward(ish). We’ll see if this picks up steam again. The next name is Harvey.

Until tomorrow,
Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Gert: August 14, Update A

2011-08-14T21:28:00.002-04:00

Hurray! We have Tropical Storm Gert out there, upgraded from Tropical Depression 7 to TS Gert in the 2pm (EST) NHC advisory, and I would actually agree with this call! (And much celebration ensued. ;-))

She is heading generally towards Bermuda at the moment and will pass east of the island tomorrow, although they will get clipped by her western edge beginning tonight. Her winds are currently 45mph, central pressure 1008mb. Her center is at 29.8N, 63.2W and officially she is moving NNW at 8mph (although it looks to me like she is moving N or even NNE now). Water temperatures are about 28 deg C, and her circulation is good in the lowest half of the troposphere. There is some wind shear, but not too much. I don’t think she will pick up much in terms of wind speed/intensity as she passes Bermuda, so if anything it should hopefully be a bit of a breezy sort of day, possibly with some rain… almost barbeque weather. ;-)

Of course, right on her heels is another blob but this is being influenced by Gert, so it should remain very ‘blob-like’ (technical term ;-)) and just create a bit of windy and rainy weather as it follows the path Gert took.

That’s all for the Atlantic, so now for something a bit different…

Steve from Mississippi sent me this a few days ago: “I have wondered for quite some time why NOAA releases predictions in May and then revises them in August and who the audience is for the predictions. The media on our coastal communities quickly picks these up (especially if predictions are above average), and it causes anxiety amongst many. Also, lost in the shuffle and lost in most of the media coverage today is that there was actually a decrease in the predicted number of major hurricanes this year. Of course, I am completely supportive and greatly appreciate the hard work, dedication, and sophistication of the NOAA NHC and the work they do. They provide one of the greatest NOAA services!”

The short answer is that as climate conditions evolve throughout the year, the myriad of influences on the storm season changes and we aren’t yet good enough at predicting all those other influences on storms to be able to give an estimate only once a year. For example, we cannot predict El Nino conditions one year ahead of time, and we certainly don’t have a good handle on predicting something like dust from the Sahara on that sort of a timescale. It’s not just NOAA, but everyone releases updated estimates during the season as their climate indicators (things that they use to gauge how active a season will be) change. The audience is really anyone who will listen.

I have heard from others about the anxiety it causes when these numbers come out. Personally I think everyone should remove numbers altogether and just say whether they expect an above average, below average, or average year. I think the reason that there would be a reduction in major hurricanes was lost is simply because the more dramatic news story was the forecast of an increase in number of storms. Too bad really, because of the anxiety factor, but I am glad you picked up on that! Although I <ahem> might <ahem> disagree with them <ahem> occasionally <ahem>, I also do appreciate the NHC and I know they work really hard monitoring both the Atlantic and Pacific for us.

And now that I’ve said something nice about the NHC, I will go and recover by having a ‘Dark and Stormy’ for Bermuda (complete with Bermudan Rum no less! ;-)).

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TD Franklin, TD 7 (Atlantic Blobette), and a Blob: August 14, Update B

2011-08-13T23:01:00.003-04:00

TS ‘Fake’ Franklin – now Tropical Depression Franklin
As I thought, they downgraded him in the 11pm advisory to a Tropical Depression, sorry a ‘Post-tropical Cyclone’. I’m attaching the IR satellite image so you can have a look at what is left of him - currently he seems to be at around 40.5N, 51.8W, but it’s difficult to tell because he doesn’t have a clearly defined center. That would be because he wasn’t a tropical storm. Also from this image, we can see that his current convection levels are hovering between ‘not much’ and ‘not much at all’. He is moving ENE at 26mph, winds at 40mph, min pressure at 1005mb.

Tropical Storm for less than a day. Well done you. This is my second and last update on Fake Franklin.

Tropical Depression 7: Atlantic Blobette

The next one on the list is also on the IR satellite image, centered at around 27.9N, 61.6W. This one looks more like a blobette and has been improving in appearance throughout the day. It’s heading approximately WNW at 10mph, and if you look at what is approximately 360 miles WNW-NW of this blobette, you might be able to see a little white dot… Bermuda. If this one gets named (which I suspect it will as they now have it in the TS staging area called a Tropical Depression), this will be Gert (I don’t think I’ve heard of an actual girl’s name ‘Gert’. I presume it is short for Gertrude, but a name in its own right? Has anyone else heard of that other than as an abbreviation?).

Circulation has improved in the lowest levels of the troposphere for this blobette, but there isn’t much going on higher up yet. Winds are at 35mph, central pressure at 1011mb. Convection has also improved during the day for this baby, but it is in an area with some wind shear which is keeping it a little off-kilter. The wind shear looks like it might decrease a bit tomorrow. However, there is something else that is slowing down it’s progression, and has also put the kaibash on the other blobs and blobettes that have been trying to grow up this week. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that I mentioned earlier. I’ll come back to that fun sciency stuff in a moment (I’m building up the anticipation… ;-)).

This is still a very weak system with low wind speeds, just a bunch of clouds and rain really at the moment. I assume the Bermudians are getting ready anyway… ready to go out on little sailboats into the Atlantic and play golf and all the other things they do during a tropical storm….

Atlantic Blob

And again, going back to the Satellite IR image, if you look just south-east of the blobette-that-may-be-Gert, you can see the next potential storm. This one has some pretty decent convection, but not much in the way of circulation at any level. I’ll hold off on saying more about this until the circulation picks up. They have this one at a 30% chance of developing, and the next name up would be Harvey.

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
So, it turns out that Dust is an agathokakological sort of thing, especially the dust that comes off northern Africa. And of course, agathokakological is a sesquipedalian sort of word… heehee, I hope you all have your dictionaries handy! ;-) (yes, I’m pretty chuffed at using two of them in one sentence!). Ok ok, I’ll give you the agathokakological – this essentially means something that is both good and bad.

The dust that comes of northern Africa quite often travels westward across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean and Florida, amongst other places. This is called the Saharan Air Layer. It has two major impacts. The good one (especially good if you want a social life and are writing a hurricane blog during an active season) is that it tends to suppress tropical storms, in particular it impacts their ability to get their convection groove on. The bad impact is that, amazingly, it carries with it microbes and stuff (technical term for ‘stuff’ ;-)) which has been known to result in an increase of certain health issues along the western side of the Atlantic.

Here is a satellite image that has been worked on a bit to show the Saharan Air Layer:

The red and yellow bits are the dust levels. You can see the blobette and blob, with red indicating areas where you’ll need an industrial strength vacuum cleaner to suck up all the dust, and the yellow areas are places where a feather duster used daily might work ;-). This image is from the University of Wisconsin CMISS page, which is an excellent website for this sort of handy information! Those of you in the Caribbean know about this, because I’ve heard many of you describe the red layer of dust on your cars when there is a strong SAL.

Oh, I suppose there is one more advantage to dust… if you are on a diet, according to the ‘diet expert’ on Little Britain, you can eat as much dust as you like because it has zero calories. ;-)

Right, that’s it for today. I’m sure it will all be as quiet as a mouse out there tomorrow…

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Franklin and other Atlantic blobs and blobettes: August 13, Update A

2011-08-13T08:30:00.007-04:00

It’s really not my fault that I’m about to say this: I don’t agree with the NHC.

FAKE Tropical Storm Franklin was named at 5am EST this morning. In my opinion this is not a Tropical Storm. This is an area of circulation that is associated with a low pressure front that is moving across the northern Atlantic. It has convection. Next winter when I see a storm with circulation heading towards Europe (maybe a nice snow storm), I will make sure to send you all a picture of that ‘Tropical Storm’ too.

Why Fake Franklin isn’t a TS:

1. He developed at 37.9N. The tropics are from 30N to 30S.

2. He is moving NE at 20mph. Tropical Storms generally move at ~16-17 mph or slower. Fast moving low pressure fronts can cross the US in just under a week. They move at speeds of ~20mph or higher.

3. Water temperatures are 25-26 deg C. Tropical Storms need water of 26.5 deg to sustain them once they have formed, and at least that warm in forming.

4. The vorticity (fancy schmancy jargon to indicate the circulation) is not isolated (which is what we see in a Tropical Storm), but is connected to the vorticity of a low pressure front extending to the northeast Atlantic. I’ve included the visible satellite image to show you the front that this is connected to. “Fake Franklin” is that mass of clouds at ~40N, 60W.

5. His wind speed is estimated to be 40mph and his central pressure is estimated to be 1006mb. TS wind speed range: 39-73mph. He’s barely a TS by this definition, as 1mph is within the error margin. They say that satellite based estimates of wind speed are 30-35kts, which translates to 34.5-40.25mph (1 kt=1.15 mph). Hardly convincing. And anyway, mid-latitude cyclones can have higher wind speeds (gale force winds make for some gripping sailing in the north Atlantic!) and pressures as low as 970mb, so this is no indication.

Just because the seasonal forecast was increased to 19 named storms doesn’t mean that we need to make sure we have that many!! Grrr. It’s so so grrr… What a complete and utter waste of a name. This is the second one this season I think.

Now, about the other Atlantic Blobs and Blobettes:

They are all hovering around the 20-30% chance of forming. Oh and look! They are in the tropics over water temperatures of 26-30 deg C. That makes a change.

None of them have any decent circulation or convection at the moment. I was going to write about the wonderful and fascinating Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and its impact on these systems, but I think I’ll have a cup of tea and some English pancakes (hmm) and maybe talk about the SAL when I tell you what Fake Franklin is doing (mumble grumble).

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blobs and Blobettes: August 11, Update A

2011-08-12T00:52:00.004-04:00

I just wanted to let you know that I’m keeping an eye on you assorted Atlantic blobs and blobettes out there. I’ve seen you appearing and disappearing over the past week on the NHC map, and I want you to stop it otherwise no soup for you! It’s time to give someone else a turn with that particular etch-o-sketch now.

Of course, these are areas of interest that the NHC are also watching - sometimes known as areas where clouds loiter in a suspicious manner, which makes a change from watching youngsters in Britain doing the same thing (and what the heck is going on over there?!? I’ve not even been gone a year yet! Deary me, it wasn’t like that back in my day…).

So, apart from the news, the two areas of interest I’ve been watching most closely this week are the ones that came off Africa. Of all the yellow and orange crayon markings on the map (included here), those seemed like they had the most potential to me. One currently has a convective area around 17N, 40W (Blob) and the other has a convective area around 12N, 31W (Blobette) (see satellite IR map). Some of the computer models show both of these clipping the northeastern Caribbean, but I am not yet convinced of this, especially not with the Blob.

The Blob left Africa on August 7^th I think. Back when the UK was a normal country, before the orcs invaded. The Blob had pretty good low-level circulation and convection back then, but I was waiting for it to develop into something a bit better looking. However, it continues to struggle. The circulation is not very well confined (it’s a bit blobby!) and the convection is also looking a little peaky at the moment. It looks like it is heading generally NW towards a low pressure front (out in the middle of the Atlantic), and it might interact with that tomorrow. You can see this front on the satellite IR image – the main rainy area is around 23N, 55W, but the clouds stretch from the Caribbean up towards the NE Atlantic. Although the NHC keep increasing the % chance of this developing into a tropical system, I will refrain from writing more on this until it looks closer to hatching (which will probably be tomorrow now that I’ve written this! ;-)).

The Blobette left Africa a day or two after the Blob. Again, although the % chance of this developing is currently at 40%, I don’t really see any decent circulation in this system at the moment. Of the two, this one looks like it has the better chance of making it into a tropical storm and moving more westward across the Atlantic. Again, it is a bit too early to tell.

Maybe there will be more tomorrow. Maybe.
Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TD Emily: August 7, Update A

2011-08-07T23:31:00.006-04:00

This morning a low pressure front came down and swept her off her feet – it was a whirlwind romance ;-) (puns always intended, giggle). Once Emily left the vicinity of the Gulf Stream she lost most of her convection (the only convective areas that lingered were over the Gulf Stream and southern Florida). She’s been whisked away into the Atlantic and was last seen heading off into the sunrise (!) at around 31N, 23W, moving NE at a rapid 17mph. The NHC’s last advisory was at 5pm today, when wind speed was 30mph, central pressure 1011mb. This is my last entry on Emily. Really, I mean it this time. I’m sure she will be quite happy out there.

Thanks for all the replies to the movie quiz yesterday! Apparently I’ve wasted more time watching movies than some of you. ;-) Gary from Florida was the fastest on the buzzer, but from the replies I received I don’t think anyone got all the references in yesterday’s entry so here’s a list (taglines courtesy of IMDB):

Breakin’ 2: Electric Bugaloo (1984) – sequel to some breakdancing film. Ok, I didn’t actually see this one but as soon as I’ve finished this I’ll be looking for a copy to watch now I’ve read the tagline: “A developer tries to bulldoze a community recreation center. The local breakdancers try to stop it.” I can't wait.

The Terminator (1984) – James Cameron film, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger as The Terminator. I’ve seen it but here’s the tagline anyway: “A human-looking, apparently unstoppable cyborg is sent from the future to kill Sarah Connor; Kyle Reese is sent to stop it.” Jim from Florida said “Terminators 1 through 12”… hee hee, it does feel like that!

Harry Potter movies (“cloak of invisibility”) (2001-2011) - I think collectively this franchise is worth over $15BN. The author, J. K. Rowling, is the richest author of all time. In addition to breaking all sorts of records, Harry Potter has been responsible for the New York Times beginning a Children’s Book List. Just in case you recently arrived from another planet and haven’t heard of the Harry Potter franchise, here’s the tagline from the first movie: “Rescued from the outrageous neglect of his aunt and uncle, a young boy with a great destiny proves his worth while attending Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry.”

The Sound of Music (“raindrops on roses”) (1965) – Starring Julie Andrews. Fabulous movie (musical) based on a true story. You can even do The Sound of Music Tour in Salzburg, Austria (also the birthplace of Mozart). The tagline: “A woman leaves an Austrian convent to become a governess to the children of a Naval officer widower.”

Chocolat (2000) – Gary (who named it yesterday but hasn’t seen it), it’s a lovely, romantic movie with Johnny Depp and some other people. Tagline: “A woman and her daughter open a chocolate shop in a small French village that shakes up the rigid morality of the community.” I'm sure you'll enjoy it. ;-)

Under the Yum Yum Tree (1963) – Thanks to Bob in Florida for getting this one… because apparently this is a movie that even I didn’t know about! (and yet somehow managed to reference, so now I’ll have to watch it!). (Bob, it better be good!). Stars Jack Lemmon. Tagline: “A love-struck landlord tries to convince a pretty tenant to dump her fiancé and give him a chance.”

My Fair Lady (“mostly on the plane”) (1964) – Starring Audrey Hepburn and Rex Harrison. Fabulous movie (musical). Screenplay written by Alan Jay Lerner, who also wrote a book on the musical, based on a play (Pygmalion) by George Bernard Shaw, based on the classic Greek myth of Pygmalion. The IMDB tagline says “A misogynistic and snobbish phonetics professor agrees to a wager that he can take a flower girl and make her presentable in high society.”

North-By-Northwest (1959) – A classic Alfred Hitchcock movie starring Cary Grant. Really good stuff. Tagline: “A hapless New York advertising executive is mistaken for a government agent by a group of foreign spies, and is pursued across the country while he looks for a way to survive.”

Good Night and Good Luck (2005) – A George Clooney movie… director, writer, and actor. Based on a true story. Some random trivia from IMDB: Precisely every 23 minutes (the standard running time of TV shows from the 1950s), the film is punctuated by a jazz song performed by Dianne Reeves. The tagline is “Broadcast journalist Edward R. Murrow looks to bring down Senator Joseph McCarthy.”

And of course, the ever-present Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975) – Fabulous movie (musical). I sure hope you’ve all seen this one! The tagline (as if you need it): "King Arthur and his knights embark on a low-budget search for the Grail, encountering many very silly obstacles." Obviously based on a true story. ;-)

That’s it until the next blob materializes.
Adieu!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TD Emily II, Electric Bugaloo... August 6, Update A

2011-08-07T00:08:00.002-04:00

Just like The Terminator, Emily is back. Actually she didn’t really ever go away, she just put on a cloak of invisibility. Her circulation stayed strong even though she hasn’t had much convection to speak of (well, other than over Cuba and the Bahamas, which got more than a few raindrops on roses). (Apparently that niggling thing in my head that I mentioned in my previous update was not a crayon after all ;-) (The Simpsons)). As she moved northwards and more-or-less cleared the Bahamas, she gained access to all that lovely warm, deep Gulf Stream water to feed from… it’s tropical storm chocolat! Yum! So, quite predictably (in some circles), now we are seeing an increase in convection. This rain will fall mostly on the plane over southern and eastern Florida, although those of us on the west coast might get some rain and clouds tomorrow. The latest IR satellite image shows the solid area of convection that has popped up in the past few hours:

With the relatively low winds, I think this will make some people along the east coast happy because they were asking for a ‘nice’ storm with a bit-o-rain (although I don’t think it will get to you guys in North Carolina).

After sending a plane into the system, they reclassified her as a Tropical Depression in the 5pm advisory today with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1011mb. Currently her center is at 27.4N, 78.2W, which puts her about 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama. She is officially moving northward at 8mph. It’s night-time, so I can’t really assess where her center is and whether it is going northward or perhaps a little more north-by-northwest and closer to Florida (for a short while) before heading north and north east into the Atlantic, so I will go with the NHC numbers for now. About her intensity: there is some wind shear, but once that dies down (it looks like tomorrow) she will have a chance to intensify a bit more (but still remain a Tropical Storm – mostly a rain event). I think she’s already strong enough to be a weak Tropical Storm Emily II (you know that generally the sequels aren’t as good as the originals), especially as she’s over the Gulf Stream, but officially she’s just a Tropical Depression.

Speaking of sequels… can you name the movie references in this update? ;-)

Good night and Good Luck!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TS Emily: August 4, Update A

2011-08-04T19:17:00.002-04:00

Well the good news is that the mountains of Hispaniola combined with the wind shear were a bit much for TS Emily, and the NHC has downgraded her to a Tropical Depression as of the 5pm EST advisory. That was their last advisory on this system. They placed her final center at 19N, 75W, winds at 35mph, central pressure at 1009mb and she was zipping NW at 16mph. As I said yesterday, the speed would indicate if that low pressure broke through the high pressure to her north, which it appears it finally did.

The other good news is that although Haiti got some rain, most of it was over on the Dominican Republic side of Hispaniola. Here is an IR satellite image of Emily now. Mostly just cloudy with pockets of rain here and there.

The only slightly niggling thing in my head is that although the convection took a hit, her circulation seemed to have improved a bit higher up in the troposphere during the day today. And it looks like it is just south of Hispaniola, not at the lat/long of the final center location (which is between Cuba and Haiti). But for now, this will be my last update on Emily (unless she decides to come out and play again).

I hear there was some bad news on the stock market today. Ernie from Florida wins for making the best tropical storm-link-to-unrelated-news-item for today with: “Seen the market? Falling faster than a barometer before a Cat 5!”

However, the other bad news is that NOAA issued their mid-season update and have increased the number of named storms from 14 to 19. I think this is particularly bad news for all of you because it means you’ll be hearing from me quite a lot if that’s the case…bwaa haa haa (evil laughter, and fade off stage left).

I shall celebrate the end of storm number 5 in the usual manner. Glass of wine anyone?

I’ll be back when the next one pops up.
Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Emily: August 3, Update A

2011-08-04T01:36:00.004-04:00

I’m back! And TS Emily is still out there? Bother, I had set my time machine for next week… clearly a glitch brought me back here. Oh well. ;-) I see that in my absence Emily read my blog and decided to continue on a more westward track after all. It looks like she will clip southern Haiti on her way to Cuba, before curving to the NW and then N. She is currently centered at around 17.1N, 71W, with winds of 50mph and central pressure of 1004mb. She is barely moving – officially she is moving westward at 5mph.

I suppose I should let you in on the “big secret” about why the models are insisting she will make that WNW, then NW and then finally N turn, despite her taking a more westward track than they first expected. This will also explain why she has practically stopped moving. But first some science background on the basics of storm tracks… Oh gosh, how exciting! Got your cup of tea and biscuits (British biscuits = American cookies)? Are you ready? Here we go…

<science alert> In the northern hemisphere 'things' (technical jargon ;-) ) tend to move clockwise around high pressure systems, and counter-clockwise around low pressure systems. For example, a tropical storm has low pressure in the center so winds move counter-clockwise (or anticlockwise if you prefer) around a storm. Similarly, tropical storms also move around larger pressure systems. There is generally a region of high pressure that likes to hang out over the Atlantic, sometimes called the Bermuda High or the Bermuda-Azores High. You can imagine it as a big clock face over the Atlantic. As storms cross the ocean, they move westward along the six o'clock region. As they turn WNW and NW they are moving from 6 to 9. Then they move N and NE, from 9 to 12. Of course, this imaginary clock face isn't nice and round, nor does it stay in the same place (otherwise forecasting the track would be easy peasy :-)). It's like a Dali clock, with wiggly bits (more technical jargon ;-)) that are always moving. I have an image somewhere that I made for a talk… I’ll see if I can dig it out for you all. This is why I will sometimes talk of 'pressure fields' when I talk about the track - I am referring to the large scale atmospheric pressure fields. <end of science alert>

(I’ll be talking about this during the season, so you might want to highlight this section before you laminate the print out of this update to put in the folder you have of all my updates… ;-))

Now why are they predicting Emily to turn to the north? So far she has been moving along the squiggly 6 o’clock section of the clock face along the southern edge of this high pressure system as she crossed the Atlantic – i.e. generally westward. However, this high pressure (from what I can see) extends all the way across the Caribbean towards the southern Gulf. This means I would normally expect her to keep moving westward, which is why I have said repeatedly that she would stay more westward than the track they were forecasting initially and why I thought she would pass south of Haiti or clip it on her way to Cuba, instead of passing over central Hispaniola. However, slowly creeping in from the north is an area of low pressure! <insert Jaws soundtrack> If that low pressure can ‘break through’ the high pressure to her north, it will give her room to speed up and move from the 6 to the 9 position on the clock. The models are predicting this low to move down fairly quickly… I think they thought it would already have broken through by now, so their curve was sooner. My clue to what is going on is in Emily’s forward speed… she has slowed down. Storms slow down when they bump up against high pressure in the direction they are moving. She has high pressure in front of her (both to the north and the west) and until that erodes in one direction or the other, she is a bit stuck. So there are two scenarios I see now…

1. The low pressure from the north breaks through, and she speeds up and heads WNW, NW and then N and around in a fairly sharp curve.
2. The high pressure in front (to the west) of her erodes a bit (the wiggly clock face er… does some more wiggling ;-)), and she carries on moving on a more westward-WNW track at a reasonable pace, in which case she may stay over Cuba longer than expected before moving NW – if that’s the case then she may even dissipate. Again, the intensity depends on the track.

Tomorrow I will be looking for signs in a change in speed (and possibly direction).

Either way, she is over warm water and warm water with depth, so she has some of what she needs to create lots and lots of rain. To counter this, the island land masses may be able to reduce her intensity and convection, and she is now experiencing some pretty strong wind shear which will also help keep her in check. Unfortunately it is almost inevitable that parts of Haiti will get a bit soaked. At the moment their worst scenario is for her to get stuck for a long time just south of them, over the ocean, raining away. I don’t think she will – but I am not sure which of my two scenarios above will happen first.

Done for today.
Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TS Emily: August 2, Update B

2011-08-02T23:58:00.002-04:00

Goodness me but Emily is a tricky little storm! She’s done all sorts of things today, like get stronger and stayed a little more westward. She’s now moving WNW though at around 14mph , with a center near 16N, 66W (this is my estimate, which is slight east of the official one at 16.2N, 66.7W).

There are still a number of factors at play – the dry air continues of course, but wind shear is also increasing and of course as she gets closer to the islands to the north she will be impacted negatively. Despite this, I think she might have room to get stronger. She currently officially has winds of 50mph, central pressure is 1005mb. Although this officially makes her a fairly weak system (TS range: 39-73mph), the convection is really really strong… if even one of those inhibiting factors went away, we would probably have a hurricane. The dry air and wind shear is stopping the worst of this getting to the northeastern Caribbean. Tom from St. Thomas sent an ‘on the ground’ update:

“Other than some wind gusting and cloudy skies we have gotten a small amount of rain considering what is all around us”

(Thanks Tom!)

I can see why the NHC has her track curving to the northwest. I don’t have time to go into that at the moment (it involves actual science though.. ooh aah… the really fun stuff! :-)), but it is quite possible as track scenarios go. I do agree that for tomorrow she will have room to move in a more WNW direction, which is something she really didn’t have today, which is why she carried on bravely westward. Tomorrow I’ll have a better idea about how much she will curve – so just get ready if you are in the official cone (and even if you are not)!

I’m traveling today/tomorrow (I’m sitting here, overlooking Canal Street from the 41^st floor of a building!), but will check in at least once. Hopefully she’ll have sorted herself out a bit more and decided if she wants to visit Hispaniola (which, by the way, will be a bit of a mess if she has the convective activity she is showing at the moment because Haiti has the propensity for landslides in that mountainous terrain).

Night for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TS Emily: August 2, Update A

2011-08-02T09:04:00.002-04:00

TS Emily continues to move westward at 14 mph and the forecast track has been shifted slightly to the left since yesterday to reflect this. In the next 12 hours they forecast her to resume a WNW track, heading towards Hispaniola. The sent in a plane this morning, and readjusted the center southeastward from its previous location, so it is now closer to 15.3N, 63.7W. It is still difficult to see the center from satellite images, so I will go with this as it seems reasonable. Her center will pass south of the US Virgin Islands, but that area will still get bits of rain (er… technical term ;-)) from the outer bands and it’ll be a bit breezy.

She hasn’t gained much in strength yet, with winds still around 40mph, central pressure 1007mb. There are some competing things at work here – there is dry air to her west and north, which will inhibit development. However, she is beginning to pull away from the Windward Islands so the land effect will decrease, and also I see that wind shear is decreasing. Given that water temperatures 28-29 deg C, with water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 100 m, I think she will strengthen a bit today. If she continues westward for longer than they forecast, she will have a chance to strengthen because she won’t be interacting with land. However, if she makes that WNW turn, then she won’t have a chance to strengthen too much. So today we are looking at her track movements, which will determine her intensity. At the moment, I am leaning towards a more westward track (on the left edge of their cone of uncertainty), so she passes just south of Hispaniola or just clips it as she heads towards Cuba.

I’ll be back later. Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Emily: August 1, Update B

2011-08-01T23:25:00.006-04:00

Sorry, did I say earlier that you’d get a 6 minute warning if you lived on the Caribbean Islands? My bad. I was obviously still half-asleep or something when I wrote that… if I was being realistic I would change that to er… you’d get a 0 minute warning (or possibly a -6 hour warning), because that’s what appeared to have happened to a bunch of the Windward Islands today. Usefully (especially in case you live out there and missed it) the first NHC update for Emily says that Tropical Storm conditions are occuring in the windward islands. (I’m British, I can’t help being slightly sarcastic once in a while – we get it from contact with the rainwater over there. ;-))

Here's an IR satellite image of Emily a few hours after she was (finally) officially named (at around 7.30pm EST) and also the track map with watches and warnings that came into effect at the time, as per the NHC page, this ‘NEW TROPICAL STORM’ formed.

I’ll let you match the island warning with the convective activity… it’ll give you all something to do as we wait for the next official update. Fortunately for the people who live there, the winds are really fairly low at the moment 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), but the rain is pretty heavy (red and gray areas are torrential downpours with thunder and possibly tornadoes).

They say that a plane finally found a closed circulation centered around 15.2N, 62W with a central pressure of 1006mb and at the 2^nd advisory (11pm EST), the center was at 15.5N, 62.9W with no change in pressure or wind speed. She is moving W at 17 mph, and tropical force winds of 40mph can be felt as far as 70 miles from the center (mostly to the north). She is expected to make a WNW turn, bringing TS level winds to the US Virgin Islands tonight/early tomorrow, with those winds reaching Puerto Rico tomorrow during the day, and the Dominican Republic by tomorrow evening. I have heard from Tom on St. Thomas throughout the day today:

“around here our local news have informed us via the weather service that this blob will hit us direct around tuesday/wed possibly as a hurricane...people here are not getting ready as far as I can tell” and then later this evening “the stores were more crowded than usual for a monday but I would say people are not reacting to the local warnings to get prepared for a direct hit from whatever it brings”

She is a bit messy so it is difficult for me to see the center, so for now I’ll go with the official word. She is being inhibited in development by the island chain at the moment, but I think once she is fully in the Caribbean she will have room to blossom a bit. The official forecast says she will slowly intensify to 50mph winds by tomorrow evening, and will remain a relatively weak system. (One of the models even predicts she will dissipate in 2 days!). Wind shear is still strong, and there is some dry air to her west and north – both factors that will keep her weak. However, to counter this, the water is certainly warm enough to sustain her and the warm water is in the upper 100m at least, so she’s got a lovely buffet to continue nibbling from. The circulation continues to remain strong in the lower half of the troposphere, with a very small signal in the upper levels. The track has her gradually curving WNW in the next 24 hours. I think there’s a good chance she will continue on a more westward track for longer than expected – but that really depends on where her center is. Hopefully I’ll have a better idea once daylight creeps back. There is a chance she could develop into a hurricane if she continues westward and stays away from the islands. Or she could weaken if she takes that WNW turn and interacts with land. Too soon to tell… the only thing I can say is that everyone should be ready anyway (northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida, SE US, and also Bermuda for next week… oh bother, that includes me! now which box is my torch in? ;-))

Good luck out there!
Until tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blobette: August 1, Update A

2011-08-01T08:13:00.003-04:00

The status of this blobette has not yet been changed (well, they downgraded it overnight to only a 90% chance of development), which is a surprise to me - at the very least it should be a Tropical Depression! (TD range: winds of >17mph and a closed circulation). But there were some communication difficulties with plane that flew through the system yesterday, so they will re-evaluate things today. At least I know that those in the Caribbean Islands have gone through this enough times to not wait for the ‘official’ TS warnings and watches and to go ahead and dust the cobwebs off their umbrellas and wellington boots, because the warnings are a bit too late otherwise (Surprise! You have a Tropical Storm making landfall in the next 6 minutes! ;-)).

Convection in this system has improved since yesterday and is strong in some parts of the storm, but still quite weak in other parts. The strongest convection appears to be around the center(ish) area of the blobette. The circulation is really good in the lowest half of the troposphere (up to about 5-6 km), and it looks like the center is somewhere around 14-15N, 56-57W. Fortunately there has been no change in the circulation in the upper half of the troposphere so this is still, at the most, a Tropical Storm. The western edge has already started to impact the Windward Islands of the Lesser Antillies (rainy weather), which will help to inhibit some development at least. The other factor that will inhibit the storm from developing too rapidly for now is wind shear.

From the snippet of satellite information I have, I see winds of around 30-35 knots (this is on the edge, this particular satellite did not go over the center part of the blobette), which converts to 34.5-40mph (1 knot = 1.15mph) – so it is fairly weak at the moment (but should be a Tropical Depression at least I reckon). They have sent a plane in to the system this morning to see if it can find a closed circulation (and communicate the data back to the NHC).

That’s it for now. The chances of there being another update from me in the next 48 hours are ‘near 98.93859354 %’. ;-)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blobette: July 31, Update A

2011-07-31T09:59:00.002-04:00

That blobette I mentioned a few days ago has put on a nicer frock now (maybe in the casual summer dress range, not quite yet an evening gown ;-)).

However it is still somewhat disorganized, and it is spread out over a broad area with some pretty decent circulation in the lower parts of the troposphere, centered around 13-14N, 51-53W, and some circulation in the upper half of the troposphere, centered around 13-14N, 48-49W. The wind shear is also skewed, with more to the north of the system than to the south.

It has been trying to get the convection we need, but that’s still a little scattered as well with more on the western side than the eastern. This is partly because the western is now over ocean waters that are warmer than 26 deg C over the upper 100m of the water column, whereas on the eastern side they are warm only over the upper ~50m. As it moves WNW (at 15mph), it will eventually be over the deeper warmer water region and we should see convection pick up.

They are sending in a plane to investigate this afternoon and they have the ‘chance of it becoming a tropical cyclone’ (note: lower case J) at ‘near 100%’ (not quite sure why they bother with this level!), so I am expecting to have a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm by the end of the day.

Given the broad area this is spread over, and more importantly, given that there is circulation in the upper troposphere, *if* this system gets its act together before reaching the Windward Islands, I think there is a good chance this could be our first hurricane of the season.

I’ll pop back with an update once this one puts some make-up on. ;-)
Laters!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Don: July 29, Update B

2011-07-30T00:59:00.003-04:00

Tropical Storm Don deteriorated rapidly before officially making landfall, so he was just a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph (central pressure 1006mb) when he made landfall in Baffin Bay at around 10 pm local time. His convection collapsed within 3 or so hours, and all that is left of him now are some clouds and small pockets of rain as shown in the IR satellite image taken about 1-1.5 hours after landfall.

Although the NHC say he will dissipate in a day or so, I am writing him off now… it’s a Saturday tomorrow, and I have fun Saturday sorts of things to do instead. Like dishes. And laundry. And vacuuming. And other such exciting things. It’s ok, you can admit it, you are envious aren’t you? ;-)

This is my last entry on this system… I’m done with Don! Hurray!! J

That’s it until the next system, which once it forms will go by the name ‘Emily’.

Toodle Pippy!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TS Don: July 29, Update A

2011-07-29T16:33:00.001-04:00

A quick note: TS Don’s outer rainbands have been moving onshore over southern Texas/Mexico during the day today. The center is still offshore at around 26.6M, 96W and is moving WNW at 15mph – a few more hours to go until landfall. Winds have remained at near 50mph (from a plane, and also just under that from satellite information). Central pressure is 1004mb, so fairly high already. This is obviously more of a rain and thunderstorm event than a wind event.

I’ll be back later, once he’s made landfall.
Until then,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TS Don & Atlantic Blobette: July 28. Update C

2011-07-28T23:17:00.003-04:00

TS Don:
Well I have returned from having a glass of wine and lo-and-behold the NHC and I are, indeed, in better agreement since the earlier entry! The NHC relocated the center southward and it is now at 24.7N, 92.5W, moving WNW at 14mph. It is also quite a bit more towards the west than previously stated (hmm… perhaps where it might have been if it had been moving WNW all along instead of NW). The forecast track has been moved southwards, with the center of the cone of uncertainty now south of Corpus Christi and currently potential landfall may be more likely closer to the Brownsville/Rio Grande region (southern Texas/Mexico area) around midnight tomorrow night. Also, the central pressure has now been decreased to 998mb (based on observations from two aircraft) and sustained winds have increased to 50mph. As you know I’m not very opinionated (ha ha ha), but I do approve. The NHC reason for this change in center and track is that Don jogged ‘temporarily westward’.

Now that’s been sorted out I can think about the intensity. Don has just finished crossing the Loop Current. Although he is still over water with temperatures around 30 deg C, those warm waters are not as deep as in the Loop Current. Combining this with the light wind shear means that I don’t really expect him to get any stronger than he is at the moment (50 mph) and I think there is even a chance that he will weaken before landfall.

Atlantic Blobette:
There is a little blobette waaay out there. It has some decent very low tropospheric circulation, and some convection, however the two are not in the same place and there isn’t any mid-to-upper level circulation yet. I’m not going to mention this one again unless it puts on a nicer frock.

That’s it for today. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.
Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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